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Home
Stocks
AerCap Holdings N.V.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall71
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9Better than 71% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
76
6.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
44
4.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
82
6.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
32
5.4x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
63
0.81%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
64
22.8%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
44
6▲3Around median
AER

AER AerCap Holdings N.V.

AerCap Holdings N.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
141.50
▲ ⁦+0.76%⁩ (+1.07)
Market Cap$22.3B
Beta0.93
52w Low52w High
118.93158.81
Last Week
⁦-1.85%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.40%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.78%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.04%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$142
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$176
⁦+24%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$165–$190⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$177.00
⁦+25.1%⁩
Current Price $141.50·Median $176.00
Low
$165.00
High
$190.00
Current price
$141.50
Average target
$177.00
Street summary

Aercap (AER) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Aercap (AER) stock has seen a notable positive shift in analyst outlook over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising from $165 to $177, an increase of 7.27%. This rise reflects growing confidence, especially as the current price of $155.24 is still trading below the lowest price target set by analysts ($165), indicating a consensus view of a positive price gap.

As of 2026-08-06
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.10
Buy
Analyst coverage
10
Buy conviction
90%
High
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
2
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.13 → 4.10
Recent analyst moves
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    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    6.85x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.86x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.40x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -3.0%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    26.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    59.9%
    8.6%54.6%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    6.1%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.44x
    0.55x4.37x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    5.6%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

AerCap Holdings N.V. operates in the leasing, management, and sale of aviation assets, with a platform that includes aircraft, engines, and helicopters. Its core income is generated from asset rentals, while maintenance revenue and gains from asset sales provide additional sources of profit; in fiscal Q2 2026, basic lease rents reached $1.677 billion, maintenance revenue was $177 million, and net maintenance contribution was $131 million, while the company also generated $223 million in net gains from asset sales.

In fiscal Q2 2026, AerCap reported GAAP net income of $726 million and earnings per share of $4.59, compared with adjusted net income of $811 million, adjusted earnings per share of $5.14, and adjusted return on equity of 18%. The results included the sale of 38 assets for $1.4 billion in proceeds at an unlevered gain-on-sale margin of 20%, along with operating cash flow of $1.5 billion; the call did not disclose a consolidated gross margin or a full revenue breakdown across all asset segments.

EDGAR data show that fiscal 2025 revenue was $8.5 billion, up from $8.0 billion in fiscal 2024, while net income increased from $2.1 billion to $3.8 billion and earnings per share rose from $10.79 to $21.30. Compared with fiscal 2023, which recorded revenue of $7.6 billion and net income of $3.1 billion, revenue growth is evident across both periods, but the net income trajectory was more volatile because of the nature of gains from asset sales and other items.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 29, 2026, AerCap raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026 to approximately $16.80, from the estimate of $14.50 announced in February 2026; the new guidance includes $2.80 of gains from sales recorded in the first half and excludes any additional gains from sales in the second half.
  • The passenger aircraft lease extension rate reached 85% in fiscal Q2 2026, well above the long-term average according to management, reflecting airline demand exceeding the available supply of aircraft and engines and continued strength in asset values.
  • The company completed $2.8 billion in asset sales in the first half of fiscal 2026, including $1.4 billion in fiscal Q2 at a 20% gain-on-sale margin, and raised its estimate for full-year fiscal 2026 asset sales to a range of $4–5 billion.
  • AerCap ordered 15 new Boeing 787 aircraft for delivery between 2030 and 2033, supporting what management described as the largest Boeing 787 fleet and order book among lessors, while benefiting from scarce delivery slots and the replacement cycle for older widebody aircraft.
  • The company repurchased $691 million of shares in fiscal Q2 2026 and more than $1.4 billion in the first half, equivalent to more than 6% of the share count outstanding at the beginning of the year; since 2023, repurchases have totaled 93 million shares with an aggregate value of $8 billion.
  • Management expects some Spirit aircraft to return to service in fiscal Q4 2026 and ten additional aircraft to be leased out before the end of fiscal 2026, which it described as supportive of lease yield and net spread over the following quarters.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Strong cash generation gives AerCap substantial flexibility in capital allocation; operating cash flow reached $1.5 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, while available liquidity totaled approximately $22 billion and the sources-to-uses coverage ratio was 1.9 times as of June 30, 2026.
  • +The supply-demand imbalance supports pricing power and asset values: the company recorded an 85% extension rate for passenger aircraft and sold 38 assets in fiscal Q2 2026 at a 20% gain-on-sale margin, while demand for widebody aircraft and CFM56 and LEAP engines remained strong according to the call.
  • +The balance sheet combines moderate leverage with the capacity to return capital; the leverage ratio was 2.05 times and secured debt represented 9% of total assets as of June 30, 2026, alongside the repurchase of more than 6% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of fiscal 2026 during the first half.
  • +The order book strengthens long-term growth opportunities, as AerCap added 131 aircraft to its order book since the beginning of fiscal 2026, including 15 Boeing 787 aircraft with scarce delivery positions between 2030 and 2033, while retaining approximately $3.5 billion of deployable excess capital.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $177 and a range of $165 to $190. The average target is approximately 11% above the 52-week range high of $158.81, and even the lowest target exceeds that level, but the $25 spread in the range reflects differing assessments of the sustainability of gains from asset sales and cash flows. No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range compared with the 52-week range of $118.93–$158.81 and on the company's ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance.

BuyAnalyst target: $177(+25.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were AerCap's key results in fiscal Q2 2026?

AerCap reported GAAP net income of $726 million and earnings per share of $4.59 in fiscal Q2 2026. Adjusted net income was $811 million, adjusted earnings per share were $5.14, and adjusted return on equity was 18%. The company also generated $1.5 billion in operating cash flow and achieved $223 million in net gains from asset sales.

Why did AerCap raise its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance?

On July 29, 2026, the company raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026 to approximately $16.80, compared with the $14.50 estimate announced in February 2026. The new guidance consists of approximately $14 in earnings per share excluding gains from sales, plus $2.80 of gains from sales realized in the first half. Management attributed the outperformance relative to its previous guidance to $514 million in gains from asset sales, a higher net maintenance contribution, and stronger other income.

Why is AerCap's order for 15 Boeing 787 aircraft important?

AerCap announced an order in fiscal Q2 2026 for 15 Boeing 787 aircraft, with deliveries beginning in 2030 and extending through 2033. Management believes that scarce delivery positions, the large number of older widebody aircraft, and production delays in previous years support long-term leasing demand. According to the call, AerCap has the largest Boeing 787 fleet and order book among lessors, giving it greater capacity to meet airline demand for modern widebody aircraft.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The strength of fiscal 2026 earnings depends partly on high and volatile gains from asset sales; first-half gains added $2.80 to the $16.80 earnings per share guidance, while management explained that quarterly gain-on-sale margins ranged between 18% and 35% during the periods discussed and that second-half sales volume would not repeat the first-half level.
  • −The maintenance contribution is expected to decline from its elevated level; net maintenance contribution reached $131 million in fiscal Q2 2026, but management said the first-half level was higher than usual because of the timing of revenue, expenses, and claims, and that it would return to more typical levels in the second half.
  • −Year-over-year growth in global air traffic slowed during 2026, with weakness in daily activity in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and North America, while management also said that higher input costs are pressuring airline margins; persistently high oil prices could weaken the profitability of some customers and increase credit or remarketing risks.
  • −Fleet growth remains limited in the near term because elevated asset sales reduce the rent-generating base; on July 29, 2026, management forecast only modest fleet growth during the second half of fiscal 2026, despite the start of Spirit aircraft returning to service.
  • −Growth plans face execution risks related to manufacturer and supply-chain constraints; the widebody opportunity is based primarily on years of production shortfalls and delivery delays, while deliveries of the new Boeing 787 order extend from 2030 to 2033, making the timing of returns dependent on Boeing's ability to execute the program.
  • −Insiders recorded three sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 6, 2026, for net sales of $2.3 million; this is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence to the contrary.
How is AerCap allocating capital in fiscal 2026?

AerCap repurchased $691 million of shares in fiscal Q2 2026 and more than $1.4 billion during the first half, equivalent to more than 6% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. Since 2023, the company has purchased 93 million shares, or approximately 40% of the shares outstanding, for $8 billion. At the same time, it added 131 aircraft to its order book and retained approximately $3.5 billion of deployable excess capital.

What is supporting AerCap's aircraft leasing market?

The passenger aircraft lease extension rate reached 85% in fiscal Q2 2026, well above the long-term average according to management. The company also sold 38 assets for $1.4 billion in proceeds at a 20% gain-on-sale margin, indicating strong buyer demand and asset values. Management links these conditions to delays in new aircraft deliveries, limited engine availability, and continued airline demand exceeding supply.

What are the main risks to monitor in AerCap's results?

Management expected net maintenance contribution to return from the elevated level of $131 million in fiscal Q2 2026 to a more typical level in the second half. The earnings per share guidance of $16.80 also includes $2.80 of first-half gains from sales, which can fluctuate depending on the assets whose sales close in each quarter. In addition, daily air traffic showed weakness during 2026 in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and North America, and persistently high oil prices and input costs could pressure airline margins.