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Stocks
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG
AEBI

AEBI Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG · NASDAQ
Market Closed
12.06
▲ ⁦+0.58%⁩ (+0.07)
Market Cap$934.7M
Beta2.48
52w Low52w High
8.9115.96
Last Week
⁦-4.06%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.41%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.58%⁩
Last Year
⁦+0.33%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall22
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketValue TrapF 3/8Better than 22% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
50
998.8x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
71
104.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
20
5.2%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
33
7.1x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
18
1.41%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
41
12.3%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
50
2▼3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$12
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$17
⁦+41%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$17–$17⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$17.00
⁦+41.0%⁩
Current Price $12.06·Median $17.00
Low
$17.00
High
$17.00
Street summary

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Price Target Revision

Bullish tilt

The price target for AEBI has seen a positive revision over the past thirty days, with the average forecast rising by 7.94% to reach 17 compared to 15.75 previously. This change reflects optimism from the sole analyst currently covering the price target, placing the target approximately 38% higher than the current price of 12.32. Additionally, Roth MKM reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on August 14, 2026, reinforcing the positive outlook.

As of 2026-08-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+7.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2025-11-26
    Roth MKM
    Buy· $16.50
  • = Reiterate2025-11-14
    D.A. Davidson
    —· $15.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    998.82x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    11.41x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.74x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -2.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    104.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    52.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    19.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    5.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    7.11x
    0.55x4.37x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    53.1%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG is a company specializing in vehicles and equipment for airports, municipalities, freight transport, and agriculture, operating through the North America and Europe and Rest of World segments. The group generates revenue from the sale of vehicles and equipment such as truck bodies, service vehicles, airport and road maintenance equipment, and municipal and agricultural vehicles, alongside after-sales services through the AtlasCare network. Following its acquisition of The Shyft Group on July 1, 2025, the group expanded its presence in the United States and began benefiting from shared manufacturing, cross-selling, and brand simplification.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, net sales reached $496 million, representing organic growth of 9.4% from the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 22% to $42 million. The margin for these earnings reached 8.5%, and earnings per share improved to $0.14 from a loss of $0.06 per share in the corresponding period, also exceeding the analysts' estimate of $0.13. Net income increased by $18 million year over year, reflecting profitability growth that outpaced sales growth.

The North America segment led sales growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 with an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by converting the truck body backlog into revenue and improved airport and municipal production, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose by approximately 22%. Europe and Rest of World recorded organic sales growth of approximately 7% and a 25% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, supported by higher gross margins, after-sales service performance, and cost control. EDGAR data for fiscal year 2025 show revenue of $1.5 billion, gross profit of $304.1 million, and net income of $9.7 million, while the twelve-month period ended in 2026 recorded a net loss of $11.9 million on revenue of $1.9 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Order intake in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased 16% to $516 million, while the backlog grew by approximately 20% to nearly $1.3 billion, providing management with revenue visibility through the remainder of 2026 and beyond. In North America alone, the backlog increased by approximately 27%, while order intake in Europe and Rest of World rose by approximately 20%.
  • In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the group secured a seven-year, $96 million framework contract with a strategic U.S. customer, covering cargo trucks alongside truck bodies. Revenue recognition for the contract begins in 2027, and the full contract is not included in the backlog; the group records only the purchase orders received.
  • The benefits from integrating The Shyft Group are accelerating; the group raised its annual savings target to more than $40 million and expects to achieve $37 million of this amount by the end of 2026 and approximately an additional $5 million in 2027. The next phase includes bringing XP Service Body PRO manufacturing in-house and expanding cross-selling, after adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 22% and its margin improved by approximately 120 basis points when comparing the twelve months before and after the acquisition.
  • New contracts and products supported diversified growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026; Royal recorded a record quarter, and service vehicle production increased by more than 20% above historical averages, while the group also won an $11 million German highway contract. Innovations include Cleango 550, the new generation of Aebi Terratrac, expanded electric offerings, and new airport equipment solutions, alongside the development of autonomous airport operations in partnership with Yeti Move.
  • Management reaffirmed its net sales and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance for fiscal year 2026, supported by order growth, improved efficiency, and cost control. The 2030 strategy targets annual revenue exceeding $3 billion and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin above 13%, through organic growth, market recovery, disciplined acquisitions, pricing, and improvements to the operating mix.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The backlog of nearly $1.3 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 provides a clear foundation for converting orders into revenue, while the $96 million U.S. contract adds potential revenue streams beginning in 2027 without being fully included in the reported backlog.
    • +The quality of growth improved in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, as sales increased 9.4% while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 22% to $42 million, and earnings per share shifted from a loss of $0.06 to a profit of $0.14.
    • +The integration of The Shyft Group provides additional margin leverage; the group is targeting annual savings exceeding $40 million, including $37 million expected by the end of 2026, with an additional contribution of approximately $5 million in 2027 from in-house manufacturing and cross-selling.
    • +Momentum is spread across airports, municipalities, truck bodies, service vehicles, and agriculture rather than depending on a single product line; North America sales grew 11%, while Europe and Rest of World sales increased 7% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Royal also recorded a record quarter, the group won the $11 million German highway contract, and it launched the new generation of Aebi Terratrac.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Gross margins face pressure from supply chain disruptions, material cost inflation, and higher energy prices related to the war in Iran, while the impact of price increases is delayed by the size of the backlog. Management expects most of the pricing impact to emerge by the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, making the margin trajectory before then sensitive to continued cost pressures.
    • −Net debt stood at $450 million at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and financial leverage was 2.7 times. Management revised its end-of-2026 target from 2 times or slightly below to 2 times or slightly above because of increased safety inventory and larger-volume purchasing to secure supplies and protect margins, investments it expects to continue through the beginning of 2027.
    • −Reported profit remains weak relative to the scale of revenue; the twelve-month period ended in 2026 recorded a net loss of $11.9 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $0.154, despite revenue of $1.9 billion. Net income for fiscal year 2025 was also only approximately $9.7 million on revenue of $1.5 billion, highlighting the gap between improving adjusted earnings and stable net profitability.
    • −Truck body chassis supply remains an operational issue requiring monitoring as part of Ford's business transitions to Blue Bird and the new chassis is scheduled to launch in 2028. Management views the transition positively because it preserves two suppliers, but acknowledged that some customers shifted from Ford chassis to FCCC chassis and that the process requires close monitoring.
    • −Fiscal year 2026 guidance assumes continued easing of geopolitical disruptions, tariff discussions, and inflation, so results could come under pressure if this assumption does not materialize. The large backlog lengthens the time required to pass higher material costs and new prices through to fulfilled contracts.
    • −No usable price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the loss recorded during the twelve-month period ended in 2026, reducing the clarity of earnings-based valuation. The analysts' average target, highest target, and lowest target are also identical at $17, a range that provides no variation on which to base an assessment of differences among analysts' estimates.

    Valuation

    The published analyst consensus is “Buy,” and the average price target of $17 matches the highest and lowest targets and is approximately 6.5% above the 52-week range high of $15.96, while the range low is $8.91. No valid comparable price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the $11.9 million loss for the twelve months ended in 2026, so the stock's valuation depends more heavily on the sustainability of the return to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the realization of integration savings, and the reduction of financial leverage.

    BuyAnalyst target: $17(+41.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-05; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving AEBI's growth in fiscal year 2026?

    In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, order intake increased 16% to $516 million, while the backlog grew by approximately 20% to nearly $1.3 billion. Net sales increased 9.4% to $496 million, led by growth of 11% in North America and 7% in Europe and Rest of World. Drivers included converting truck body orders into revenue, strong demand for airport and municipal equipment, and a record quarter for the Royal brand.

    Did AEBI return to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Earnings per share reached $0.14 in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, exceeding the analysts' estimate of $0.13 and compared with a loss of $0.06 in the corresponding period. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 22% to $42 million, with a margin of 8.5%. However, the twelve-month period ended in 2026 recorded a net loss of $11.9 million, so the shift to quarterly profitability has not yet been established as sustainable annual net profit.

    How significant is Aebi Schmidt's $96 million truck contract?

    The contract announced in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 spans seven years and is valued at $96 million with a strategic U.S. customer whose relationship with the group exceeds two decades. The agreement covers cargo trucks alongside truck bodies, expanding the range of products supplied to that customer. Revenue recognition begins in 2027, and the group does not record the contract's full value in the backlog, instead recording purchase orders as they are received.

    How large are the savings from Aebi Schmidt's acquisition of The Shyft Group?

    One year after the July 1, 2025 acquisition, the group raised its savings target to more than $40 million annually. Management expects to achieve $37 million by the end of 2026, with approximately an additional $5 million in 2027. The remaining contribution includes bringing XP Service Body PRO manufacturing in-house and expanding cross-selling, while order intake increased 26% and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 22% when comparing the twelve months before and after the acquisition.

    What are the main financial risks facing AEBI through the beginning of 2027?

    Net debt stood at $450 million and financial leverage at 2.7 times at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Management revised its end-of-2026 leverage target to 2 times or slightly above, from 2 times or slightly below, because of temporary investments in safety inventory and larger-volume material purchases. These investments coincide with material cost inflation and energy and supply chain pressures, while most of the impact of price increases is expected to emerge by the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.

    How does AEBI's stock valuation look based on the available figures?

    The published analyst consensus is “Buy,” and the average price target, highest target, and lowest target are all $17. This target is approximately 6.5% above the 52-week range high of $15.96, while the range low is $8.91. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the $11.9 million net loss during the twelve-month period ended in 2026, making execution of the margin improvement and financial leverage reduction plan key factors in estimating value.