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Agree Realty Corporation
ADC

ADC Agree Realty Corporation

Agree Realty Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
71.23
▼ ⁦-0.36%⁩ (-0.26)
Market Cap$8.6B
Beta0.47
52w Low52w High
69.5682.08
Last Week
⁦-1.93%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.71%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.61%⁩
Last Year
⁦-3.80%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall50
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 6/9Better than 50% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
24
38.3x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
74
18.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
59
3.8%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
47
6.2x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
31
4.41%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
43
3.0%2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
91
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$71
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$83
⁦+17%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$80–$86⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$55
⁦-23%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$55–$83⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$83.00
⁦+16.5%⁩
Current Price $71.23·Median $83.00
Low
$80.00
High
$86.00
Current price
$71.23
Average target
$83.00
Street summary

Consensus Target Stable with Limited Coverage Decline

The consensus price target remained stable at 83, unchanged from September 10, but down from 84 seven and 30 days ago, a decline of one dollar or 1.19%. The current range is between 80 and 86, reflecting a $6 difference among the three analysts, while the consensus remains above the current price of 71.23; therefore, the outlook appears marginally less optimistic compared with the previous month, while the overall trend remains cautiously positive.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.65
Buy
Analyst coverage
20
Buy conviction
60%
Mixed
Target dispersion
8%
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
1
11
8
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.65
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    Guggenheim
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-19
    Barclays
    —· $84.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-13
    Mizuho Securities
    —· $80.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    38.30x
    5.03x40.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    35.91x
    5.89x47.13x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    20.41x
    3.68x29.40x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    6.0%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.1%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    10.1%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    68.4%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    3.8%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    6.16x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.4%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    162.4%
    31.2%370.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Agree Realty Corporation is a real estate investment trust focused on net-leased retail properties, generating its income primarily from rents associated with a portfolio of 2,830 properties across all fifty U.S. states and the District of Columbia as of the end of fiscal 2026 Q2. Its external growth strategy relies on three channels: acquisitions, development, and the developer funding platform, with a focus on operators in sectors such as home improvement, grocery, auto parts, farm and rural supply stores, discount stores, and big-box stores attached to travel centers. Ground leases accounted for more than 10% of annualized base rent, while investment-grade tenants represented approximately two-thirds of the portfolio.

In fiscal 2026 Q2, the company reported revenue of $211.6 million, net income of $54.7 million, and earnings per share of $0.44, compared with revenue of $206.5 million, net income of $62.1 million, and earnings per share of $0.50 in fiscal 2026 Q1. Revenue for the twelve-month period ending during fiscal 2026 was approximately $779.6 million, with net income of $224.9 million and earnings per share of approximately $1.87, compared with revenue of $737.6 million, net income of $204.3 million, and earnings per share of $1.77 in fiscal 2025. The provided EDGAR data did not include a gross profit figure, making AFFO a clearer operating metric; it reached $1.14 per share in fiscal 2026 Q2, representing 7.4% year-over-year growth.

Agree Realty invested more than $500 million across its three platforms in fiscal 2026 Q2, including $451 million to acquire 82 retail assets within a total of 102 properties. The acquisitions had a weighted average capitalization rate of 7% and a weighted average lease term of 11.2 years, while more than 73% of the added annualized base rent came from investment-grade retailers and ground leases accounted for 13.5%. The portfolio also maintained record occupancy of 99.8%, and the company executed new leases, extensions, or options covering approximately 760 thousand square feet at a rent recapture rate of approximately 105%.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The company raised its fiscal 2026 investment guidance to a range of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion after investing a record of more than $500 million in Q2, placing the midpoint of the range 24% above the initial guidance issued at the start of fiscal 2026.
  • Agree Realty raised its fiscal 2026 AFFO per share guidance by $0.02 at the midpoint to a range of $4.57 to $4.59, implying year-over-year growth of approximately 6%, driven by increased investment activity and strong portfolio performance.
  • The development and developer funding platform accelerated, with five projects launched in fiscal 2026 Q2 at an expected cost of approximately $88 million, including new locations for 7-Eleven, Ross Dress for Less, Burlington, and concepts operated by TJX. Projects launched through June 30, 2026 exceeded $105 million, more than three times the comparable period, while committed capital across 20 completed or under-construction projects reached approximately $200 million during the first half of fiscal 2026.
  • The acquisitions included specific high-quality assets, including three ground leases for Walmart Supercenter stores, a Walmart Neighborhood Market store, and a ground lease for Home Depot, in addition to a BP-branded travel center transaction valued at approximately $75 million and backed by the A- rated credit of BP North America.
  • The company reduced its credit loss and occupancy assumption in its fiscal 2026 guidance to 25 basis points, the low end of the previous range of 25 to 50 basis points, after recording only 10 basis points during the first half and 6 basis points in Q2. Only 18 leases remain due during the rest of the year, representing 40 basis points of annualized base rent.
  • Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 4, 2026 showed a buying signal, with one purchase, no sales, and net activity of 357,050 according to the provided data, which supports confidence but does not replace an assessment of operating and financial performance.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The company combines clear operating growth with high-quality new assets; AFFO per share grew 7.4% year over year to $1.14 in fiscal 2026 Q2, alongside 99.8% occupancy and a rent recapture rate of approximately 105%.
    • +Liquidity of approximately $1.9 billion, including more than $750 million available under the credit facility and $1.1 billion of forward equity, gives the company the capacity to fund the raised investment range without approaching any material debt maturities before 2028. Assuming full settlement of the forward equity, net debt to recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization is approximately 3.7 times, compared with 5.2 times before settlement.
    • +Recent acquisitions feature a strong credit and contractual mix; more than 73% of the annualized base rent added in fiscal 2026 Q2 came from investment-grade tenants, with an average lease term of 11.2 years and a capitalization rate of 7%.
    • +Expansion of the development and developer funding platform provides an additional growth channel alongside property acquisitions, with approximately $200 million of projects completed or under construction during the first half of fiscal 2026 and the company approaching its medium-term target of $250 million in annual project starts.
    • +The monthly cash dividend was $0.267 per share in April, May, June, and July of fiscal 2026, equivalent to more than $3.20 annually and 4.3% year-over-year growth. The dividend payout ratio was 70% of AFFO per share in Q2, indicating operating coverage of the distributions within the provided figures.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The growth plan depends on executing a large investment volume ranging from $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026, so setbacks in due diligence or the timing of transaction and project closings could slow capital deployment and the achievement of expected AFFO growth; management emphasized that the acceleration of activity in the second half remains subject to due diligence and timing.
    • −Despite the portfolio’s quality, tenant and occupancy risks do not disappear; the company included 25 basis points of credit and occupancy losses in its fiscal 2026 guidance and identified certain AMC locations as the largest component of the watchlist. Occupancy of 99.8% limits the current impact, but leaves little room to offset any sudden credit deterioration.
    • −Funding the expansion requires continued use of capital markets; the company had approximately $1.1 billion of forward equity, of which approximately $425 million under contract was due during the second half of fiscal 2026, and it also discussed issuing ten-year unsecured debt. These instruments may fund growth, but they expose shareholders to dilution when the equity is settled and increase the sensitivity of results to funding costs.
    • −Interest rates remain a risk to yield spreads and real estate asset valuations; management cited the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.7% during the call and estimated that ten-year debt could be issued at a cost in the low 5% range after accounting for hedges. Forward swaps totaling $300 million mitigate this risk, but do not eliminate the impact of the high-interest-rate environment on acquisition pricing and financing.
    • −Net income declined from $62.1 million in fiscal 2026 Q1 to $54.7 million in Q2, while earnings per share fell from $0.50 to $0.44, despite revenue increasing from $206.5 million to $211.6 million. This divergence between revenue growth and accounting profit makes it necessary to monitor the quality of the conversion of expansion into earnings, alongside AFFO.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $84 and a range of $80 to $91; the average is above the 52-week high of $82.08, while the highest target clearly exceeds that high. The data does not include an available price-to-earnings ratio, so the valuation assessment relies more heavily on fiscal 2026 AFFO per share guidance of $4.57 to $4.59 and its expected growth of approximately 6%, weighed against interest-rate and financing risks and the execution of investments totaling up to $1.8 billion.

    BuyAnalyst target: $84(+17.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Agree Realty Corporation generate its revenue?

    Agree Realty generates its income primarily by leasing retail properties under net leases within a portfolio of 2,830 properties as of the end of fiscal 2026 Q2. The portfolio spans all fifty U.S. states and the District of Columbia, and approximately two-thirds of it was associated with investment-grade tenants. The company uses three growth channels: acquisitions, development, and the developer funding platform, without relying on ancillary fees from its partnerships with retailers.

    What were ADC’s key results in fiscal 2026 Q2?

    Revenue was $211.6 million, net income was $54.7 million, and earnings per share were $0.44 in fiscal 2026 Q2. Core FFO per share was $1.13, representing 7.5% year-over-year growth, while AFFO per share was $1.14, representing 7.4% year-over-year growth. The portfolio also recorded record occupancy of 99.8%, with credit and occupancy losses of 6 basis points during the quarter.

    Why did Agree Realty raise its fiscal 2026 guidance?

    The company raised its AFFO per share range to $4.57 to $4.59, an increase of $0.02 at the midpoint and expected year-over-year growth of approximately 6%. The increase followed investments of more than $500 million in fiscal 2026 Q2 and improved portfolio performance during the first half. The company also raised its investment volume guidance to a range of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, placing the midpoint of the range 24% above the initial guidance.

    What was the quality of the properties ADC acquired in fiscal 2026 Q2?

    The company spent $451 million on 82 retail assets within total quarterly investments of more than $500 million across 102 properties. The weighted average capitalization rate was 7% and the weighted average lease term was 11.2 years, while more than 73% of the added annualized base rent came from investment-grade retailers. The transactions included three ground leases for Walmart Supercenter, one for Home Depot, and a BP travel center transaction valued at approximately $75 million.

    Can Agree Realty’s balance sheet fund the growth plan?

    Liquidity was approximately $1.9 billion at the end of fiscal 2026 Q2, including $1.1 billion of forward equity and more than $750 million available under the credit facility. Net debt to recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 5.2 times and declines mathematically to approximately 3.7 times after full settlement of the forward equity, with no material debt maturities before 2028. Fixed-charge coverage was also 4.1 times, and the company expects free cash flow after dividends to exceed $140 million in fiscal 2026.

    What are the key risks to monitor for ADC stock?

    The main risks are executing an investment program of up to $1.8 billion and funding it through forward equity or new debt in a high-interest-rate environment. The company had approximately $425 million of forward equity contracts due during the second half of fiscal 2026 and estimated that a potential ten-year debt issuance would cost in the low 5% range after hedging. At the portfolio level, the company assumed 25 basis points of credit and occupancy losses and identified certain AMC locations as the largest watchlist item despite occupancy of 99.8%.

  • −Valuation poses a risk if the guided growth trajectory is not achieved; the average analyst target of $84 is above the upper end of the 52-week range of $82.08, while the lowest target is only $80. The lack of an available price-to-earnings ratio in the provided data also deprives investors of a traditional valuation anchor and increases reliance on AFFO, balance-sheet quality, and dividends.