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Home
Stocks
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9Better than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
87
7.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
45
-2.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
93
——Top tier
▸
Safety
35
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
73
5.20%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
62
7.9%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
84
13▲3Top tier
ACGL

ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
96.09
▼ ⁦-0.11%⁩ (-0.11)
Market Cap$33.6B
Beta0.29
52w Low52w High
82.45107.09
Last Week
⁦-2.56%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.20%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦+5.71%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$96
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$115
⁦+20%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$104–$126⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$275
⁦+186%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$115–$275⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$114.17
⁦+18.8%⁩
Current Price $96.09·Median $115.00
Low
$104.00
High
$126.00
Current price
$96.09
Average target
$114.17
Street summary

Target prices stable as the number of analysts declines

Target prices have not changed over the last 30 days; consensus remained at 114.17, with the median at 115 and a range between 104 and 126. Compared with the current price of 96.2, consensus indicates a calculated upside of approximately 18.7%, but the number of analysts fell from 7 to 3, reducing the breadth of coverage and increasing uncertainty about how representative the consensus is.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦20 (-4)⁩
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
23%
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
3
7
9
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.56 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.48x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.04x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -2.0%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    31.7%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    5.2%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    38.9%
    9.8%97.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Arch Capital Group Ltd. operates through three interconnected segments: specialty insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance. The company generates income from underwriting premiums and investing available funds, allocating capital among lines based on risk-adjusted returns; in Q2 FY2026, investments contributed $417 million in net investment income, while equity-method investments added another $196 million to net income.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue according to EDGAR filings was approximately $4.7 billion, net income was $1.1 billion, and earnings per share were $3. After-tax operating income was $893 million, or $2.56 per share, while the company recorded an accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophes of 82.5%, up 160 basis points year over year; the data did not include a comparable gross profit margin.

The underwriting profit mix in Q2 FY2026 consisted of $27 million from insurance, $410 million from reinsurance, and $220 million from mortgage insurance. Insurance was affected by catastrophic losses related to the Iran conflict, while reinsurance benefited from relatively limited catastrophe losses, and mortgage insurance maintained stable performance, with the delinquency rate in the U.S. mortgage insurance portfolio remaining at 2.1%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis ending in 2026, the data shows revenue of $19.2 billion, net income of $4.7 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $13.45.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Arch repurchased 12.4 million shares at a total cost of $1.2 billion during Q2 FY2026, bringing total repurchases in the first half of FY2026 to $1.95 billion, equivalent to approximately 94% of net income for that period.
  • The $49.5 billion asset portfolio provided significant support to earnings; net investment income was $417 million, and equity-method investments added $196 million, bringing their combined total to $613 million, or $1.76 per share before tax, in Q2 FY2026.
  • The reinsurance segment generated underwriting income of $410 million and an accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophes of 79.9%, but net premiums written declined 10.4% year over year due to lower pricing and increased retrocession purchases, particularly in specialty and property catastrophe lines.
  • The mortgage segment generated underwriting income of $220 million in Q2 FY2026, with the delinquency rate in the U.S. mortgage insurance portfolio remaining stable at 2.1%. The company also added a relatively large new client in Australia that began operations in Q1 FY2026, and management expects more premiums from it during the remainder of FY2026.
  • Net premiums written in the insurance segment declined 5.1% year over year due to the non-renewal of certain program business and reduced underwriting of excess and surplus property and specialty business, while North American casualty lines continued to grow and positive trends emerged in war and terrorism lines in the London market.
  • Book value per share increased 2.8% during Q2 FY2026 and 4.5% during the first half of FY2026, supported by strong earnings and operating cash flow of $1.3 billion in the quarter.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Arch's diversification across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance provides multiple sources of underwriting profit; in Q2 FY2026, the three segments generated underwriting income of $27 million, $410 million, and $220 million, respectively, despite differing pricing and loss conditions.
  • +Underwriting quality supports profitability, as the overall accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophes was 82.5%, while insurance recorded 91.6% and reinsurance recorded 79.9% in Q2 FY2026, all below 100%.
  • +Investments represent an additional earnings pillar, with an asset base of $49.5 billion, an average credit quality of AA-, and a combined contribution of $613 million from net investment income and equity-method investments in Q2 FY2026.
  • +Share repurchases enhance capital returns; the company spent $1.95 billion on repurchases in the first half of FY2026, while the debt and preferred shares-to-capital ratio remained at 18.1% at the end of Q2 FY2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $114.17, compared with a target range of $104 to $126 and a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average target and the highest target are above the upper end of the 52-week range of $107.09, while the lowest target is within the 52-week range of $82.45–$107.09, reflecting differing assessments of the impact of strong earnings versus slowing premiums and softer property pricing. The data does not permit the calculation of a reliable price-to-earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment here is based on the analyst target range and the 52-week range rather than an unavailable multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $114.17(+18.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did ACGL generate its Q2 FY2026 earnings?

Arch's revenue according to EDGAR filings was approximately $4.7 billion, net income was $1.1 billion, and earnings per share were $3 in Q2 FY2026. On an after-tax operating basis, the company generated $893 million, or $2.56 per share. The insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance segments contributed underwriting income of $27 million, $410 million, and $220 million, respectively. Combined net investment income and equity-method investment income also totaled $613 million before tax.

Why are Arch's insurance and reinsurance premiums declining?

Net premiums written in insurance declined 5.1% year over year during Q2 FY2026 due to the non-renewal of certain program business and reduced underwriting of excess and surplus property and specialty business. In reinsurance, net premiums written declined 10.4% as pricing fell, some clients retained more risk, and retrocession purchases increased. Management estimated that property catastrophe renewal pricing in mid-FY2026 declined by percentages in the mid-teens. In contrast, North American casualty lines continued to grow, and specialty casualty reinsurance opportunities remained selectively attractive.

How significant is ACGL's share repurchase program?

Arch repurchased 12.4 million shares for $1.2 billion in Q2 FY2026. Total repurchases during the first half of FY2026 reached $1.95 billion, equivalent to approximately 94% of net income for the period. Management said that slower premium growth and strong earnings freed up additional capital for repurchases, but it did not specify a fixed target for future purchases. The debt and preferred shares-to-capital ratio was 18.1% at the end of Q2 FY2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Property and short-tail markets entered the early stages of a softer cycle due to an influx of capacity; management estimated that property catastrophe renewal pricing in mid-FY2026 declined by percentages in the mid-teens, putting pressure on underwriting volumes and available returns.
  • −Premium growth is clearly slowing, as net premiums written declined 10.4% year over year in reinsurance and 5.1% in insurance during Q2 FY2026 due to lower pricing, some clients retaining more risk, the non-renewal of certain program business, and reduced property underwriting.
  • −Underwriting indicators showed some deterioration despite remaining profitable; the overall accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophes increased 160 basis points to 82.5%, while the corresponding reinsurance ratio increased 270 basis points to 79.9% due to mix changes and lower property pricing.
  • −Current-year catastrophe losses totaled $201 million after reinsurance and reinstatement premiums in Q2 FY2026 and included the Iran conflict and severe convective storms in the United States. Management explained that most catastrophe losses in the insurance segment resulted from physical damage related to Iran and that a continuation of the conflict could produce additional losses on a per-insured-asset basis.
  • −The natural catastrophe portfolio remains exposed to major events; the estimated net probable maximum loss from a single event in a peak zone with a once-in-250-year return period was approximately $1.8 billion as of July 1, 2026, equivalent to 8% of tangible shareholders' equity.
  • −Insider activity recorded net sales of 58,980 shares during the three months through the latest transaction on June 3, 2026, with one sale and no purchases, but this signal is classified as neutral, and the insider sales may have been prearranged.
  • How much catastrophe risk did Arch face in Q2 FY2026?

    The company recorded current-year catastrophe losses of $201 million after reinsurance and reinstatement premiums in Q2 FY2026. The losses came from the Iran conflict and severe convective storms in the United States, with most catastrophe losses in the insurance segment related to physical damage to assets in the Iran region. On July 1, 2026, the estimated net probable maximum loss from a single event in a peak zone with a once-in-250-year return period was approximately $1.8 billion. This was equivalent to 8% of tangible shareholders' equity, while management maintained its estimate for the group's annual catastrophe load within a range of 6%–8%.

    How is ACGL's mortgage insurance segment performing?

    The mortgage insurance segment generated underwriting income of $220 million in Q2 FY2026. The delinquency rate in the U.S. mortgage insurance portfolio remained stable at 2.1%, with reserve development continuing to be favorable but at a slower pace than in previous quarters. Earned premiums were stable compared with the previous quarter, as growth in Australia offset most of the decline in U.S. business. A relatively large new Australian client also began adding business in Q1 FY2026, and management expects its contribution to increase during the remainder of FY2026.

    What does the analyst consensus indicate about ACGL's valuation?

    The analyst consensus rates ACGL shares as a “Buy,” with an average price target of $114.17. Targets range from $104 to $126, revealing a notable difference in assessments of the company's value. The average target and the highest target exceed the top of the 52-week range of $107.09, while the lowest target remains within the range of $82.45–$107.09. This gap reflects a balance between underwriting and investment earnings and share repurchases on one hand, and pricing pressure, declining premiums, and catastrophe risk on the other.