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Stocks
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
ABR

ABR Arbor Realty Trust

Arbor Realty Trust · NYSE
Market Closed
4.72
▼ ⁦-1.87%⁩ (-0.09)
Market Cap$907.9M
Beta1.12
52w Low52w High
4.7212.58
Last Week
⁦-8.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-11.94%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-14.03%⁩
Last Year
⁦-60.07%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall16
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketValue TrapF 4/9DistressBetter than 16% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
15.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
5
-7.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
32
1.9%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
21
72.6x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
48
28.83%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
2
-54.7%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
89
4▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$4.72
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$5.00
⁦+6%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$5.00–$5.00⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-35.46
⁦-851%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.3⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-35.46–$5.00⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$5.00
⁦+5.9%⁩
Current Price $4.72·Median $5.00
Low
$5.00
High
$5.00
Street summary

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Price Revision Analysis

Bearish tilt

Arbor Realty Trust stock saw a decline in its average price target from 5.5 to 5 over the past 30 days, a decrease of 9.09%. Despite the number of analysts increasing from 2 to 4, all forecasts converged exactly at the 5 level (high, low, and mean), indicating a strong consensus and high certainty among analysts on a valuation slightly below the current market price of 5.01.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.60
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦5 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
20%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
1
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.20 → 2.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-02
    Piper Sandler
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2025-12-22
    Piper Sandler
    —· $8.00
  • = Reiterate2025-11-03
    Piper Sandler
    Underweight· $10.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.26x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.35x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    83.43x
    3.68x29.40x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    35.0%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -7.0%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -91.8%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    1.9%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    72.59x
    1.55x12.39x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    28.8%
    0.6%15.6%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    461.6%
    31.2%370.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.04
    -0.883.10
    Below average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-08 data

Company Overview

Arbor Realty Trust is a real estate finance company listed under the ticker ABR on NYSE, and generates its income through balance-sheet real estate lending, originating and selling loans through its agency platform, loan servicing fees, and single-family rental and construction financing. As of March 31, 2026, its investment portfolio totaled approximately $12 billion with a gross yield of 7.03%, while its fee-earning servicing portfolio totaled $36.3 billion with an average servicing fee of 35.5 basis points, supporting expected annual gross income of approximately $129 million.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Arbor Realty Trust reported revenue of $293.6 million, compared with $292.6 million in fiscal Q1 2026, representing limited quarter-over-quarter growth of approximately 0.3%. However, the net result shifted from a profit of $11.0 million and zero earnings per share in fiscal Q1 2026 to a net loss of $27.0 million and a loss per share of $0.20 in fiscal Q2 2026; the net loss was equivalent to approximately 9.2% of revenue.

Operating data for fiscal Q1 2026 highlights the platform's diversification, with total agency volume of $795 million, including an $88 million CMBS brokerage transaction, while balance-sheet loan originations totaled $400 million, single-family rental loans totaled $125 million, and one construction financing transaction totaled $113 million. In contrast, the company ended the period with approximately $1 billion in nonperforming assets, split between approximately $500 million in delinquent loans and approximately $500 million in owned real estate assets, making the resolution of the legacy portfolio the most important factor in profitability.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Arbor Realty Trust reduced its nonperforming assets by approximately $100 million, or 9%, during fiscal Q1 2026 after completing $200 million in resolutions; as of May 8, 2026, management saw a path to resolving an additional $200 million to $300 million during fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026, with the potential to resolve another $100 million by the end of fiscal 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company is targeting a reduction in OREO assets to between $250 million and $300 million by the end of fiscal 2026 through estimated sales of between $100 million and $150 million in Q2 and between $200 million and $250 million during Q3 and Q4. Successful completion of these sales would free up capital that could be redeployed into interest-earning loans, but would be accompanied by realized losses and provisions during the cleanup phase.
  • The agency platform recorded a loan sales margin of 1.86% in fiscal Q1 2026, up from 1.36% in the previous quarter, due to a greater mix of Fannie Mae business and smaller transactions. The company also generated $10 million in mortgage servicing rights income related to $734 million of committed loans, at an average rate of 1.32%.
  • Single-family rental loan originations totaled $125 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and management subsequently indicated on the May 8, 2026 call that approximately $200 million was already in place and that it expected to exceed $300 million during fiscal Q2 2026. In construction financing, the company closed a $113 million transaction in Q1 and expected to close an additional $250 million in Q2 as part of an annual production target ranging from $750 million to $1 billion.
  • In March 2026, the company issued a collateralized CLO loan commitment at a pricing spread of 1.73% above the benchmark, with 88% leverage and a two-and-a-half-year reinvestment period, supporting new construction financing with nonrecourse debt that is not subject to mark-to-market repricing. The average cost of facility financing declined to 6.52% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 6.66% in the previous quarter, while the spot interest margin remained at 0.63%.
  • The insider transactions signal was classified as strong_buy through August 31, 2026, with seven purchases versus two sales and three-month net activity of 283,317.05. These data represent a potential signal of insider confidence, but do not by themselves address credit risks and the net loss recorded in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Income-generating capacity could increase if Arbor Realty Trust succeeds in converting a significant portion of its approximately $1 billion in nonperforming assets into interest-earning loans; it already demonstrated a quarterly decline of $100 million in these assets during fiscal Q1 2026.
    • +The $36.3 billion loan servicing portfolio, with an estimated remaining life of six years and expected annual gross income of approximately $129 million, provides a fee-based revenue stream that partially reduces reliance on lending margins alone.
    • +The diversity of origination channels supports recovery opportunities, with $795 million in agency volume and $400 million in balance-sheet loan originations during fiscal Q1 2026, in addition to a construction financing target ranging from $750 million to $1 billion for fiscal 2026.
    • +The agency loan sales margin improved to 1.86% in fiscal Q1 2026, while the March 2026 CLO issuance provided financing with 88% leverage and a spread of 1.73% above the benchmark, two factors that could support returns on capital if the quality of new originations remains disciplined.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The approximately $1 billion in nonperforming assets represents the greatest financial risk, comprising approximately $500 million in delinquent loans and $500 million in OREO assets at the end of fiscal Q1 2026. During that quarter, the company recorded realized losses of $23 million, OREO impairment provisions of $12 million, and additional specific reserves of $9 million, with estimated realized losses of between $15 million and $25 million per quarter for the remainder of fiscal 2026.
    • −Approximately 40% of the loan portfolio is located in Texas and Florida, where management described weakness extending over 24 months and negative effects on occupancy and delinquencies. It stated that some assets moved from 90% occupancy to 75% over short periods, highlighting the portfolio's sensitivity to housing supply, tenant quality, and local operating conditions.
    • −Elevated interest rates are delaying the resolution of legacy loans and limiting liquidity flowing into the sector; according to management, five- and ten-year yields rose by approximately 50 basis points during fiscal Q1 2026. Accordingly, the company expected distributable earnings to remain near $0.17 per share in Q2 and Q3, with an estimate of $0.15 for Q2 due to an unusual financing burden of $0.02 per share.
    • −Results reported through EDGAR shifted to a net loss of $27.0 million and a loss per share of $0.20 in fiscal Q2 2026, following net income of $11.0 million in Q1. This occurred despite revenue increasing by only $1 million to $293.6 million, demonstrating that revenue stability was insufficient to prevent deterioration in the net result.
    • −The board of directors reduced the quarterly distribution to $0.17 per share in May 2026 after the expected timeline for resolving troubled loans was extended and interest rates remained volatile. The decision reflects pressure on the current ability to cover distributions, even though management believed the new level could be covered by earnings during the remainder of fiscal 2026.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $5, identical to both the highest and lowest targets, with the consensus rated Buy; the narrow range at a single figure means the provided data show no variation among estimates. This target is close to the bottom of the 52-week range of $4.73 and approximately 60% below its high of $12.58, while no valid price-to-earnings multiple is available because of the loss recorded in fiscal Q2 2026. This contraction in the valuation anchor reflects the risks from approximately $1 billion in nonperforming assets, the distribution reduction, and the losses and provisions expected during the resolution of the legacy portfolio, despite the potential for income improvement if resolution and redeployment efforts succeed.

    BuyAnalyst target: $5(+5.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-05; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Arbor Realty Trust generate its revenue?

    Arbor Realty Trust generates income from balance-sheet loans, originating and selling agency loans, mortgage servicing fees, and single-family rental and construction financing. As of March 31, 2026, the investment portfolio totaled approximately $12 billion with a gross yield of 7.03%. The fee-earning servicing portfolio also totaled $36.3 billion with an average fee of 35.5 basis points and an estimated remaining life of six years. The company estimated annual gross income from this portfolio at approximately $129 million.

    What caused the loss in fiscal Q2 2026?

    EDGAR data showed a net loss of $27.0 million and a loss per share of $0.20 in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with net income of $11.0 million and zero earnings per share in the previous quarter. Revenue increased only modestly from $292.6 million to $293.6 million between the two periods. Management had explained on May 8, 2026 that non-interest-earning assets, repricing of legacy loans, and temporary financing costs were pressuring earnings. The provided data do not include a complete breakdown of the loss items recorded in Q2, so the loss cannot be attributed to one specific item.

    What is the size of ABR's troubled loans and OREO assets?

    The company ended fiscal Q1 2026 with approximately $500 million in delinquent loans and approximately $500 million in OREO assets, totaling nearly $1 billion in nonperforming assets. This total was approximately $100 million, or 9%, lower than in the previous quarter after $200 million in resolutions. As of May 8, 2026, management was targeting a reduction in OREO to between $250 million and $300 million by the end of fiscal 2026. Its plan included estimated sales of between $100 million and $150 million in Q2 and between $200 million and $250 million during Q3 and Q4.

    Does Arbor Realty Trust's income cover the quarterly distribution?

    The company generated distributable earnings of $37.4 million, or $0.18 per share, in fiscal Q1 2026 after excluding one-time realized losses of $23 million. In May 2026, the board of directors reduced the quarterly distribution to $0.17 per share. Management estimated distributable earnings for Q2 at approximately $0.15 per share, or $0.17 after excluding a nonrecurring financing burden of $0.02. The company based the new distribution level on its expectation that distributable earnings would be approximately $0.17 in fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026.

    What are the growth prospects for ABR's loan originations during fiscal 2026?

    Total agency volume was $795 million in fiscal Q1 2026, while balance-sheet loan originations totaled $400 million. In the single-family rental business, the company originated $125 million in loans during the quarter, then stated on May 8, 2026 that it expected to exceed $300 million in Q2. Construction financing recorded a $113 million transaction in Q1, and the company expected to close $250 million in Q2. The construction financing production target for fiscal 2026 ranges from $750 million to $1 billion.

    What are the main geographic risks in Arbor Realty Trust's portfolio?

    Approximately 40% of the loan portfolio is concentrated in Texas and Florida, according to the question addressed by management on the May 8, 2026 call. Management described weakness extending over 24 months in these two markets and in Atlanta, with effects on occupancy, tenant quality, and delinquencies. It noted that occupancy at some assets declined from 90% to 75% over short periods. In contrast, management said it was seeing stabilization in rents, occupancy, and operating income after strengthening asset management and changing the management of certain properties or taking control of them.

    −
    The bridge loan business faces intense competition, prompting the company to focus on larger sponsors and larger loans, which may increase the impact of a single transaction default. Differences in transaction size and mix also previously caused the agency loan sales margin to decline to 1.15% and 1.36% in two prior periods, and management acknowledged that the 1.86% margin recorded in fiscal Q1 2026 could decline over the following two quarters.