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Stocks
American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL

AAL American Airlines Group Inc.

American Airlines Group Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
13.01
▲ ⁦+1.25%⁩ (+0.16)
Market Cap$8.6B
Beta1.35
52w Low52w High
10.0918.79
Last Week
⁦+0.46%⁩
Last Month
⁦-18.84%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-11.13%⁩
Last Year
⁦-0.91%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall45
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 5/9DistressBetter than 45% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
24
7.5%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
30
3.3%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
23
9.5x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
92
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
45
26.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
47
14▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$13
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$19
⁦+46%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$13–$25⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-36.88
⁦-384%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.4⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-36.88–$19⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$19.30
⁦+48.3%⁩
Current Price $13.01·Median $19.00
Low
$13.00
High
$25.00
Current price
$13.01
Average target
$19.30
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus Amid Clear Divergence

The consensus price target for AAL fell to 19.3 from 19.8 over one day, and from 19.9 over 7 and 30 days, down 2.53% and 3.02%, respectively, with no change in the number of analysts, which remains at 15. The range is between 13 and 25, with a median of 19, reflecting notable dispersion in estimates compared with the current price of 13.01.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-3.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.48
Hold
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
48%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
92%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
2
10
11
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.44 → 3.48
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Jefferies
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Goldman Sachs
    Sell
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    8.69x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.77x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.3%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.5%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -154.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    21.0%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    3.3%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    9.49x
    0.55x4.37x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.65
    -5.667.97
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) operates as a global airline focused on an extensive North American network connecting its hubs to international markets. It generates revenue from main cabin and premium classes, while enhancing yields through its airport network, the AAdvantage program, and its exclusive credit card partnership with Citi; in fiscal Q2 2026, premium classes accounted for nearly half of ticket revenue despite representing about 30% of seats, while co-branded Citi card spending grew 8% year over year.

In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported record revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year over year, net income of $71 million, and earnings per share of $0.11. This equates to an approximate net income margin of 0.4%, illustrating that strong revenue growth did not translate into a wide margin because fuel expense increased by more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, year over year. On a trailing 12-month basis in the latest 2026 data, revenue totaled $58.3 billion, and the company recorded a net loss of $326 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $0.49.

The growth mix was broad-based in fiscal Q2 2026: domestic unit revenue rose approximately 11%, Atlantic 9%, Pacific 15%, and Latin America 7%. Premium unit revenue also increased by more than 13%, compared with approximately 9% for the main cabin, while managed corporate revenue rose 26%, reflecting that the commercial improvement depended on higher-yielding classes, corporate customers, and international markets, rather than capacity growth alone.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 23, 2026, management projected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth of between 16% and 19% year over year, with unit revenue growth in fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026 expected to exceed the level recorded in fiscal Q2 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Premium classes are driving the revenue mix higher; their revenue grew 19% and their unit revenue rose 13% in fiscal Q2 2026, and they accounted for nearly half of ticket revenue from only about 30% of seats. The company is expanding this capacity through Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR aircraft and upgrades to 777-300, 777-200, A320, and A319 aircraft.
  • Network performance improved after the flight schedule was reorganized at Dallas-Fort Worth in April 2026; missed connections declined by about 25% year over year, and unit revenue at the hub outperformed the network average by about four points. During 2026, the company also launched new flights from Philadelphia to Budapest and Prague, and from DFW to Athens, and resumed service to Caracas and Maracaibo.
  • The AAdvantage program and Citi partnership support customer base growth; program enrollments increased 32% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026 and doubled in London, while co-branded card portfolio spending grew 8%. On the corporate side, small and medium-sized business revenue through AAdvantage Business rose 42%, and travel management company revenue increased 19%.
  • The company lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook on August 11, 2026, under pressure from fuel costs and an information technology outage, with a possible loss in fiscal Q3 2026 and a near-break-even scenario for fiscal 2026. This makes the trajectory of fuel prices and operating efficiency the strongest driver of stock movements despite continued revenue growth.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Commercial growth provides tangible evidence of improving demand and mix; revenue rose 16.3% in fiscal Q2 2026, managed corporate revenue grew 26%, and premium unit revenue advanced by more than 13%.
    • +The increase in premium capacity gives the company an opportunity to raise yield per seat; premium classes generated nearly half of ticket revenue from about 30% of seats, and premium seats are growing by 5% in fiscal 2026, compared with 3% for non-premium seats.
    • +Network initiatives have produced measurable results, including an approximately 25% decline in missed connections and DFW unit revenue outperforming the network average by four points, alongside 15% unit revenue growth in the Pacific and 9% in the Atlantic.
    • +Liquidity of $11.3 billion at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 provides some flexibility against fuel volatility, and management expects, at the midpoint of its guidance range, to generate positive free cash flow and end fiscal 2026 with lower net debt than at the beginning of the year.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Fuel represents the largest financial risk; its expense increased by more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, in fiscal Q2 2026, and management projected on July 23, 2026, that the average price would be about $3.75 per gallon in fiscal Q3 2026, increasing expense by $1.7 billion year over year in that quarter.
    • −The earnings outlook deteriorated despite strong revenue; on August 11, 2026, the company indicated a possible loss in fiscal Q3 2026 and a near-break-even scenario for fiscal 2026, while the latest trailing 12-month data showed a net loss of $326 million on revenue of $58.3 billion.
    • −Reducing capacity to address fuel costs is putting pressure on unit costs; fiscal Q3 2026 capacity is now expected to increase by between 3% and 5%, about two points below the original plan at the midpoint, while the company expects CASMx to rise by between 2.5% and 4.5%.
    • −Balance sheet improvements remain dependent on margin expansion; the company is targeting total debt below $35 billion, net debt well below $30 billion, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below three times, but acknowledged that achieving these targets could be delayed. It also expects capital expenditures of approximately $4 billion in fiscal 2026 and about $4.5 billion in fiscal 2027.
    • −The company’s exposure is also linked to the fuel supply chain; about 65% of its supply comes from the Gulf region, while management indicated that the highest-cost fuel is likely found on the West Coast and at some international destinations, limiting its ability to insulate margins from geographic price differentials.
    • −Goldman Sachs and Jefferies lowered their price targets for AAL stock in August 2026 because of financial pressures, while insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on July 31, 2026, recorded nine sales and no purchases, for a negative net amount of $5.7 million; however, insider sales may be prearranged, so this remains a weaker signal than fuel and profitability risks.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $19.9, within a wide range of $13 to $25; the average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $18.79, while the highest target is clearly above that high. The wide range and absence of a usable positive price-to-earnings ratio reflect earnings uncertainty, particularly after Goldman Sachs and Jefferies lowered their targets in August 2026 and after fiscal 2026 guidance shifted to a near-break-even scenario.

    HoldAnalyst target: $19.9(+53.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What supported American Airlines’ revenue growth in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue rose 16.3% year over year to $16.7 billion, a quarterly record according to the July 23, 2026 call. Domestic unit revenue grew approximately 11%, Atlantic 9%, Pacific 15%, and Latin America 7%. Managed corporate revenue also increased 26%, and premium revenue rose 19%, making the improvement broad-based across regions and customer types.

    Why did American Airlines lower its fiscal 2026 outlook?

    The primary reason was higher fuel costs, in addition to the operational impact of the information technology outage mentioned in the August 11, 2026 news. Fuel expense had already increased by more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, in fiscal Q2 2026. As a result, the scenario now included a possible loss in fiscal Q3 2026 and fiscal 2026 results approaching break-even.

    How important are premium classes to AAL’s strategy?

    Premium classes accounted for nearly half of ticket revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 despite representing about 30% of seats. Their revenue grew 19%, and their unit revenue rose 13%, faster than main cabin revenue growth. The company is supporting this trajectory with Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR aircraft and upgrades to its 777-300, 777-200, A320, and A319 fleets.

    How are the AAdvantage program and Citi partnership developing?

    AAdvantage enrollments increased 32% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026, with strong growth in New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles, and enrollments doubling in London. Spending on the co-branded Citi card portfolio grew 8% during the same period. The exclusive partnership with Citi is a ten-year agreement, but it was still in its early stages according to the July 23, 2026 call.

    Does American Airlines have sufficient liquidity to withstand fuel volatility?

    The company ended fiscal Q2 2026 with liquidity of $11.3 billion after completing approximately $1.3 billion in additional financing during the quarter. It also addressed its only significant maturity in 2027 and expects, at the midpoint of its guidance range, positive free cash flow for fiscal 2026. However, its debt-reduction targets require margin expansion, while fuel costs and capital expenditures of nearly $4 billion in fiscal 2026 remain major pressures.

    What does the analyst consensus mean for AAL stock?

    The consensus rating is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $19.9, within a range of $13 to $25. The average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $18.79, but the large gap between the highest and lowest targets reflects clear divergence in profitability expectations. This divergence intensified after Goldman Sachs and Jefferies lowered their targets in August 2026 because of fuel pressures and a weaker financial outlook.