| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 89 | 10.0x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 65 | 6.5% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 50 | 11.8% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 70 | 0.4x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 70 | 0.82% | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 36 | 49.3% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 63 | 9 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Alcoa Corporation operates across the primary aluminum value chain, from bauxite and alumina refining to primary aluminum smelting and its sale as standard and value-added products. In Q2 FY2026, $3.3 billion of third-party revenue came from the Aluminum segment versus $637 million from the Alumina segment, illustrating that the revenue model depends heavily on aluminum shipments, realized prices, regional premiums, and premiums for products such as rod, foundry alloys, and slabs.
In Q2 FY2026, the company reported record revenue of $4.0 billion, up 24%, the highest quarterly revenue since Alcoa Corporation was established nearly ten years ago. Net income was $407 million, or $1.53 per share, versus $425 million and $1.60 per share in Q1 FY2026, while adjusted net income increased by $189 million to $562 million and free cash flow reached $422 million.
The Aluminum segment was the performance driver in Q2 FY2026; its third-party revenue increased 31% to $3.3 billion, shipments rose sequentially by 113 thousand metric tons to 726 thousand metric tons, and the segment recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $1.1 billion and a margin of 32.3%. In contrast, Alumina segment revenue declined 3% to $637 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell by $56 million due to the Pinjarra refinery disruption and higher production and fuel costs.
The analyst consensus rates AA shares as “Buy,” with an average price target of $65.50 within a wide range of $53 to $75. The average target is approximately 22% below the 52-week high of $84.38, while the 52-week range extends from $30.21 to $84.38, reflecting the valuation's sensitivity to the aluminum price cycle and operational execution. A price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the data despite earnings per share of $4.80 during the twelve-month period ended in 2026, so the valuation assessment depends on the sustainability of cyclical earnings and the realization of benefits from the South32 transaction.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue reached $4.0 billion, up 24%, the highest quarterly level in Alcoa Corporation's nearly ten-year history. Aluminum segment revenue increased 31% to $3.3 billion as shipments rose sequentially by 113 thousand metric tons to 726 thousand metric tons and prices and premiums increased. The segment generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $1.1 billion and a margin of 32.3%. Net income was $407 million and earnings per share were $1.53, while adjusted net income reached $562 million.
The announced transaction includes $3.1 billion in cash and $1 billion in shares, in addition to a contingent value right capped at $750 million over four years. Alcoa expects the transaction to increase annual alumina capacity by approximately 5.2 million metric tons, or 53%, and primary aluminum capacity by approximately 900 thousand metric tons, or 37%, on a pro forma basis. The company estimated the net present value of synergies at approximately $900 million, with annual savings of approximately $50 million beginning in the first year after closing. Management said on July 16, 2026 that the transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings per share and cash flow metrics after it closes.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The company lowered its alumina production outlook to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons and its shipment outlook to 11.5–11.6 million metric tons. The Pinjarra refinery experienced an oxalate outbreak, followed by a natural gas supply disruption caused by Cyclone Narelle that reduced operating flow during April and May 2026. The refinery returned to stable operating rates in June 2026, but management does not expect to recover the lost volumes during FY2026. The problems were reflected in a $56 million decline in the Alumina segment's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in Q2 FY2026.
The company increased value-added product volumes by 30 thousand metric tons sequentially in Q2 FY2026, benefiting from Middle East supply disruptions. Casting capacity in Europe and North America was approximately 95% utilized at the time of the July 16, 2026 call, with strength in foundry, rod, slab, and packaging products depending on the region. Alcoa is also investing $65 million in the Mosjøen expansion to increase annual capacity by up to 75 thousand metric tons and add post-consumer recycled aluminum. Management said the 2026 order book was stronger than the comparable period of 2025 across all regions and major product categories.
In August 2026, Alcoa began constructing a gallium production facility within the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia. The project is supported by the governments of Australia, Japan, and the United States and aims to establish an allied source of a metal used in semiconductor, advanced manufacturing, and defense supply chains. Alcoa contributed $24 million to the joint venture during Q2 FY2026 and said this was its only expected contribution. Integrating the facility into the existing Wagerup infrastructure adds a critical-minerals activity to the Australian refining assets without the data providing a numerical revenue forecast for the project.
The company generated $608 million in operating cash flow and $422 million in free cash flow in Q2 FY2026. It ended June 2026 with a cash balance of $1.4 billion and adjusted net debt of $1.4 billion, and repaid the remaining notes due in 2028 with a face value of $209 million. Alcoa also returned $53 million in cash to shareholders through quarterly dividends during the first half of FY2026. In contrast, the announced acquisition of South32's assets requires cash consideration of $3.1 billion, so management is targeting a post-closing leverage ratio of 2.0 times or less based on the prices used in the July 16, 2026 call.
