The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 93 | 9.2x | 20.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 61 | 6.5% | 6.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 49 | 14.4% | 6.6% | Around median | |
Safety | 74 | 0.4x | 0.7x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 58 | 0.89% | 2.02% | Around median | |
Momentum | 40 | 125.2% | 4.1% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 72 | 9 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Alcoa Corporation is a producer of aluminum, alumina, and bauxite, and it generates its revenue from selling alumina, primary metals, and value-added aluminum products to industrial customers in markets such as North America, Europe, and Asia. Its profitability model is directly linked to LME aluminum prices, Midwest and regional product premiums, API alumina prices, as well as the cost of energy, freight, carbon materials, and diesel. In the first quarter of 2026, management explained that its regional footprint and flexible smelter network helped it shift part of production toward value-added products at a time when customers in North America and Europe are looking for alternative supply due to Middle East disruptions.
In the first quarter of 2026, Alcoa recorded revenue of $3.2 billion, down 7% sequentially, but increased net income attributable to the company to $425 million versus $213 million in the previous quarter, with earnings per share of $1.60. Adjusted net income was $373 million, or $1.40 per share, after excluding net special items of $52 million, including an $88 million mark-to-market gain on Ma’aden shares. Adjusted EBITDA was $595 million, equivalent to an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 18.6% on quarterly revenue, while the net income margin was about 13.3%.
Operating performance varied clearly between segments during the quarter: third-party revenue in the Alumina segment fell 33% due to the usual decline in first-quarter shipments, lower resale of purchased alumina, vessel restrictions related to the Middle East conflict, and loading issues caused by Cyclone Narelle in Western Australia. By contrast, third-party revenue in the Aluminum segment increased 3%, supported by a higher average realized price and increased shipments from the San Ciprián smelter, and adjusted EBITDA in Aluminum rose by $174 million, while adjusted EBITDA in Alumina declined by $52 million. On a trailing 12-month basis, the company’s revenue was $12.6 billion, net income was $1.4 billion, and earnings per share were about $5.15, compared with revenue of $12.8 billion and net income of $1.2 billion in fiscal 2025.
The analyst consensus on AA is Buy, and the average price target is $72.5, with a target range between $68 and $79. Based on the live price data accompanying the analysis outside the text, the stock trades below the average analyst target, but the wide 52-week range between $28.11 and $84.38 shows that the stock is highly sensitive to aluminum and alumina price cycles. The provided data does not show a traditional price-to-earnings multiple for the company, so the valuation here appears to depend more on the earnings cycle, adjusted EBITDA, price expectations, and successful debt reduction than on a fixed earnings multiple.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-07-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue declined 7% sequentially to $3.2 billion, but net income attributable to Alcoa rose to $425 million from $213 million in the previous quarter. The main reason was improved realized aluminum prices and higher LME and Midwest premium, in addition to an $88 million mark-to-market gain on Ma’aden shares. On an adjusted basis, the company generated net income of $373 million, or $1.40 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $595 million. This means the quality of profitability in the quarter depended more on higher metal prices and improvement in the Aluminum segment than on overall revenue growth.
The impact is dual because Alcoa sells both alumina and aluminum. In alumina, the conflict caused shipping restrictions and higher energy and freight costs, while weaker API prices pressured margins in the Alumina segment, where adjusted EBITDA declined by $52 million in the first quarter. In aluminum, the disruptions tightened supply and raised LME prices and regional premiums, helping the Aluminum segment increase adjusted EBITDA by $174 million. Management stated that more than 2.5 million tons per year of smelting capacity and about 2 million tons per year of refining capacity have been taken offline since the start of 2026.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Alcoa announced that it safely completed the restart of the San Ciprián smelter on April 7, 2026, which means the second quarter will receive greater operating benefit than the first quarter. Management expects completion of the restart to support an improvement in production costs of about $10 million within second-quarter guidance for the Aluminum segment. But the picture is not entirely positive, because the San Ciprián refinery is still posting significant losses at current prices. Management explained that in 2026 the smelter will not generate enough cash flow to cover the refinery’s free cash flow losses, while seeking to reach cash breakeven by 2027.
Alcoa ended the first quarter of 2026 with cash of $1.4 billion and adjusted net debt of $1.8 billion. It also announced on April 14, 2026, its intention to redeem the remaining $219 million of 2028 notes at par, which reduced the expected interest expense for 2026 to $135 million. At the same time, the company returned $27 million to shareholders through the quarterly dividend, but recorded negative free cash flow of $298 million due to working capital, environmental payments, and capital spending. Management said its capital allocation framework has not changed, and that it will balance growth opportunities and shareholder returns after funding operations and strengthening the balance sheet.
In the latest news, it was announced on July 1, 2026 that Alcoa is acquiring South32 aluminum assets in a transaction valued at $4.1 billion. This transaction is considered positive in the data because it could expand the aluminum asset base at a time when the value of secure and diversified supply is rising. However, the data does not include sufficient operating financial details about these assets’ contribution to revenue or EBITDA, so its earnings impact cannot be estimated accurately from the provided information alone. The importance of the deal for investors is that it comes in parallel with management’s focus on reducing debt and redeeming the 2028 notes, making growth funding and balance sheet balance a key point to monitor.
The most prominent risk is continued weakness in API alumina prices alongside higher energy, freight, and materials costs, which appeared in the $52 million decline in adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment in the first quarter. Management said the 2026 guidance for the segment includes a negative impact of about $15 million, including $10 million related to lower prices and volumes in bauxite sales agreements. The company also raised its estimate for 2026 environmental and ARO payments to about $360 million from $325 million due to requirements related to the mining approvals framework in Australia. In addition, mine approvals in Western Australia remain an important factor, as the company targets obtaining ministerial approvals by the end of 2026 and links the longer path to operations that may extend until 2045.