Track the evolution of major financial and economic events
On July 3, energy market research organizations began recalibrating global oil supply forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees much slower global supply growth due to Hormuz-related uncertainty. On July 7, U.S. tech futures and global AI stocks weakened following earnings results from Samsung Electronics. Global oil prices rose following reports of ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian government plans to sell stakes in 8 state-owned companies, including major insurers and banks, to raise billions of dollars. This move aims to plug the fiscal gap caused by the oil shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The government also plans to sell up to a 5.04% stake in Cochin Shipyard through an Offer for Sale. Additionally, India has scrapped import duties on some parts used to make mobile phones and other electronic devices, which previously stood at 5% and 7.5%.
Spot gold prices surged above the $4,100 per ounce level on Thursday, July 2, following steady U.S. weekly jobless claims at 215,000, which came in below economists' forecasts. On July 9, spot gold prices continued to trade above $4,100 per ounce after the release of U.S. labor market data showing the same figure for jobless claims.
On July 2, at least five supertankers carrying 10 million barrels of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura exited the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, Saudi Aramco announced its switch to spot pricing to accelerate sales in Asian markets. By July 6, Aramco had lowered its main oil prices for Asian buyers to rare discount levels.
Silver prices surged above $60.00 on July 2 as the Federal Reserve adopted a softer tone. On July 9, silver prices (XAG/USD) rebounded to trade above the $58.00 level despite ongoing inflation fears. Gold (XAU/USD) also saw a recovery as the dollar eased, although it faced pressure from rising Treasury yields.
Oil is set for its largest quarterly price drop in 6 years, as workarounds for the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a drop in crude imports to China ease the historic supply crunch. U.S. oil companies are expected to report their strongest quarterly profits in years. President Trump has been pressing oil companies to lower gasoline prices ahead of the November midterm elections.
On June 25, Iraq urged OPEC to allow increased oil production after its exports were severely reduced due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from the US-Iran war. On June 26, Iraq's Oil Ministry announced that OPEC had begun gradually restoring Iraq's pre-war production allocations. By June 29, revenue pressures from the economic crisis caused by the Iran war and new oil major investments were driving Iraq's aggressive push for a larger OPEC production quota.
Equinor and its partners have committed to investing over 4 billion Norwegian crowns (approximately $412 million) to expand the Troll field in the North Sea. The investment focuses on a new subsea development project designed to boost gas production by an additional 11 billion cubic meters. Approved in June, this initiative aims to enhance the field's output capacity through strategic subsea infrastructure.
Oil prices dropped by over 1% following reports of a surprise ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The decline began on June 19 as geopolitical risks eased, despite ongoing tensions on the ground. The potential agreement faced an early test on June 23 after Israeli fire killed two people in Lebanon.
Oil prices edged higher early Wednesday, recovering some losses from the previous session. Investors are currently assessing the potential end of the war in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, analyses indicate that global energy markets have undergone a fundamental shift that will not revert to previous norms even after an Iranian cease-fire deal.
Gold prices extended their recovery to trade above the $4,300 per ounce level on June 16. Prices held steady above this threshold the following day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Markets remain focused on upcoming U.S. monetary policy and further developments regarding a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Precious metals rebounded as gold prices bounced off the $4,345 technical support level, while silver traded at $70.60. This recovery is driven by market stabilization following the US-Iran ceasefire and easing tensions between Iran and Israel. Investors are now focusing on technical recoveries while awaiting the FOMC decision to determine the future direction of precious metal prices.
Concerns over oil supply eased as revised estimates suggested a smaller impact from the Strait of Hormuz closure, with Kpler reporting strengthened flows via alternative logistics. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell below $63,000 following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, which proceeded despite international criticism. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently called for developing a domestic weapons industry to reduce U.S. dependence, while warning that the conflict with Iran remains ongoing.
Iran and Israel have signed a 60-day ceasefire extension mediated by the US, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil flows. Amidst these developments, the IAEA reported on Iran's enriched uranium levels prior to June 2025 air strikes. Additionally, a separate ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is set to begin this Friday.
U.S. oil prices hit three-month lows, trading below $80 a barrel for the first time since March, causing Exxon and Chevron stocks to fall following news of a U.S.-Iran deal. On June 22, crude oil prices dropped by more than 2% during the trading session. Market indices showed mixed results as the Nasdaq Composite fell over 300 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.28%.
Gold and silver prices are forecasted to reach record highs of $4,500 and $72 respectively, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar. A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is easing inflation fears and contributing to the dollar's decline. Emerging details of the draft agreement include provisions on sanctions relief, oil sales, uranium, and regional security.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a landmark peace deal with Iran, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. naval blockade. Following the announcement, crude oil prices plunged between 4% and 5%, while risk assets rallied as the U.S. dollar declined. Markets are now anticipating the formal signing of the deal this Friday, amid a week of key central bank meetings that are expected to further influence currency volatility.
Gold prices have declined by nearly 3.00% over five trading sessions, marking their third consecutive week of losses. The precious metal is currently recording its fourth monthly decline in a row amid persistent selling pressure and bearish momentum. Gold is now attempting to stabilize above a critical support zone near its yearly lows following a sharp multi-week selloff.
Gold prices are on track for a 3% weekly decline, hitting a six-month low near $4,191 per ounce as rising oil prices fuel inflation risks and intensify bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Traders are currently weighing these inflationary pressures against hopes for a Middle East peace deal that could ease the energy shock. Analysts at OCBC suggest that a recovery in gold requires softer oil prices and a peak in rate repricing, while investors remain hesitant due to ongoing geopolitical risks involving Iran.
Gold prices dipped as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% in May, exceeding economist expectations of a 0.7% increase. U.S. wholesale prices posted their largest back-to-back increases since 2022, pushing the annual PPI to 6.5%. This annual figure surpassed the 6.4% growth forecasted by experts, highlighting stronger-than-anticipated inflationary trends in the production sector.
Gold prices faced ongoing declines driven by rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar as traders revived bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. OCBC noted that the gold uptrend is delayed as markets reprice expectations toward a more hawkish monetary policy. Expectations for a Fed rate hike have climbed above 70%, maintaining significant downward pressure on gold prices.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) declined toward $68.00 on June 11 as market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intensified. Trading remained cautious around this level while investors awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. By June 12, prices slipped further toward $67.00 amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Gold prices faced intense selling pressure following US strikes against Iranian targets, which were launched in response to the downing of an American helicopter. Although prices showed signs of stabilization by June 12, gold ultimately dropped by 2% on June 13 as it lost its safe-haven appeal despite the geopolitical unrest. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $93 per barrel driven by the military escalation in the Middle East.
Gold prices faced significant downward pressure, testing the $4,300 support level near late March lows. The decline was driven by a strengthening US Dollar and robust labor data, fueling expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. This global trend resulted in price drops across markets in Pakistan, India, and Malaysia, with spot gold falling 0.4% to $4,313.11 per ounce.
