Yemeni Forces’ Withdrawal Allows Houthis to Tighten Grip on Bab el-Mandeb

Key Facts

Southern forces aligned with Yemen’s government said they withdrew on November 15 from areas along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, allowing the Houthis to tighten their grip on the strategic passage. The Associated Press said the withdrawal was a setback for Saudi-backed efforts to push the Houthis away from Red Sea coastal areas. Reuters cited Yemeni military sources as saying government forces redeployed to the Al-Suqya area, south of Dhubab, about 150 kilometres west of Aden. The sources said the forces were still trying to push the Houthis out of nearby coastal areas. The move puts the strait back at the centre of military developments in Yemen, while maritime risks remained the subject of international warnings before the withdrawal.

Reuters said the withdrawal announcement appeared to mark the end of a 6-week government counteroffensive to retake the coast near the Red Sea entrance, after the Houthis seized the area in September. Saudi-backed forces had retaken key positions around the strait in an offensive the previous month, most notably Dhubab. But they were unable to push the Houthis entirely out of the area or retake the coastal city of Mocha to the north. The developments show that the government forces’ earlier advances did not end the Houthis’ presence in coastal areas near the strait. According to the military sources cited by Reuters, the redeployment did not halt government forces’ attempts to keep up pressure on the Houthis in those areas.

In Aden, an Associated Press journalist said he heard explosions on Sunday evening. Local media reported that the Houthis fired two ballistic missiles at the Al-Buraiqa district on the city’s western coast. Clashes were also reported between the Houthis and government forces in Lahj governorate in southwestern Yemen, near key supply routes close to Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles at government forces’ positions in the Kharaz area. The area includes a camp housing thousands of African refugees, placing military developments near supply routes and civilian gatherings in the country’s southwest.

The United Nations refugee agency warned that the clashes were disrupting protection and assistance efforts for about 9,600 refugees. Separately, the Houthis released about 600 detainees on Sunday, whom a Houthi official said had been captured during the latest escalation in fighting. The Associated Press described the release as the largest unilateral release of detainees during Yemen’s 12-year civil war. These humanitarian and political developments come as fighting continues on fronts near supply routes leading to the coast. The southern forces said they would focus on securing Aden, which is controlled by the internationally recognized government, and on trying to break the Houthi siege of Taiz.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations and the Joint Maritime Information Center kept the threat level in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb at “significant” in an update on November 12, saying deliberate attacks remained a strong possibility. The update said the Houthis retained a coastal presence and the ability to target the maritime passage with long-range missiles and drones after their territorial gains in September. It added that targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel or the Yemeni government remained possible. In an earlier update issued on November 5, the two bodies said the strait remained open to commercial shipping but was security volatile. They also noted that the Houthis had said commercial vessels not linked to Saudi Arabia could pass safely.

Before the forces’ withdrawal, average vessel crossings in Bab el-Mandeb rose to about 34 per day between November 1 and 4, compared with about 28 per day in the previous week, according to tracking data cited in a November 5 update by the UK Maritime Trade Operations and the Joint Maritime Information Center. In the energy sector, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated average oil flows through the strait at 4.0 million barrels per day through August 2024, compared with 8.7 million barrels per day in 2023. The agency said Saudi crude and condensate flows through Bab el-Mandeb fell by more than 50% between 2023 and 2024, as Saudi Arabia reduced its reliance on the route by increasing exports through the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports. The Associated Press reported in July that about 12% of global trade typically passes through the strait, and that a quarter of global container trade crosses it on the way to or from the Suez Canal. Coverage published on November 15 did not establish that Houthi attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline had resumed.