Houthi Capture of Mokha and Mayun Raises Risk to Bab el-Mandeb Oil Route

Key Facts

The Houthis captured the coastal city of Mokha on September 10 and Mayun Island, also known as Perim, on September 11, according to independent reports from the Associated Press and Reuters. The gains place the group at and inside the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, increasing risk around a major oil-shipping route.

The available evidence shows greater military leverage and capacity to threaten navigation, but it does not establish that Bab el-Mandeb has been closed or brought under complete Houthi control. The more accurate development is a territorial shift that raises corridor risk, not a confirmed takeover of a second global energy passage.

The Houthi-run Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said Red Sea navigation remained safe for all shipping companies except Saudi vessels, according to Reuters. That assurance does not eliminate the risk: earlier Houthi attacks had already prompted carriers to avoid the area, and the scope of restrictions could change as fighting continues.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that 8.1 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum liquids crossed Bab el-Mandeb in Q2 2026, including 6.1 million barrels a day of crude and condensate and 2.0 million barrels a day of petroleum products. The scale explains why an actual disruption could affect freight costs and delivery schedules.

Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea and forms part of the route to the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline. The EIA says earlier threats led some vessels to take longer, more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope; higher risk can therefore raise insurance and freight costs even without a complete closure.

The development comes amid broader regional pressure on the oil market. In its August report, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102 million barrels a day, while noting that normal transit through Hormuz and unhindered passage through Bab el-Mandeb remained elusive. That does not prove the captures of Mokha and Mayun have already caused an additional physical shortfall.

By September 13, the Associated Press reported that Yemeni government forces had launched attacks on Houthi positions along the Red Sea and pledged to deploy more forces. The next effects will depend on changes in territorial control, the scope of Houthi restrictions on vessels and whether observed tanker traffic declines or shifts to alternative routes.