Global diesel exports fall 700,000 barrels a day in September to 4.7 million
Key Facts
Global diesel export flows fell by about 700,000 barrels a day in September 2026 from the same month a year earlier, to 4.7 million barrels a day, according to preliminary trade data cited by the International Energy Agency in its October report. The decline came as supplies from Russia and the Middle East, two major sources of fuel in international trade, contracted. The agency said export losses from the two regions totaled 1.3 million barrels a day and were not fully offset by increased shipments from other sources. The decline points to a widening gap between available supplies and demand for gasoil, leaving the market vulnerable to tight supply. In its November report, the agency also warned that Russian supply disruptions caused by attacks on energy infrastructure would continue.
Combined net exports from the Middle East and Russia fell to 820,000 barrels a day in September, down more than 60% year on year, according to the IEA. The agency said combined flows dropped by 1.3 million barrels a day during the month, reflecting the scale of the contraction in supplies from the two exporters. Gulf countries recorded net diesel and gasoil exports of 390,000 barrels a day in August, slightly more than a quarter of pre-war levels. In the same month, combined Gulf and Russian exports remained 1.6 million barrels a day below February, when the two accounted for about 45% of global seaborne diesel and gasoil trade. The comparison shows that September's losses were part of a broader decline that began earlier, as supplies from the region and Russia remained constrained.
The United States and China helped ease some of the shortfall, with their combined exports rising by 610,000 barrels a day from September 2025, according to the report. But flows from the two countries fell 150,000 barrels a day from their August peak, and the year-on-year increase was not enough to close the losses from Russia and the Middle East. Across the first nine months of 2026, global gasoil exports averaged 4.7 million barrels a day, 10% below the level in the same period a year earlier. Inventories also remained tight: OECD countries' gasoil stocks fell to 565 million barrels in July, 5% below pre-conflict levels. That was the lowest level since November 2023, the agency said, reducing the buffer against any further supply disruption.
Although prices have retreated from their peak, diesel remained expensive in major markets. European diesel prices fell 11% from their early-October peak but remained near $180 a barrel, 77% above pre-war levels, according to the IEA's November report. Meanwhile, North Sea crude fell 32% from a peak of $136 a barrel in early October to $93 a barrel at the time the report was prepared. The agency said a recovery in Gulf exports and easing market bottlenecks contributed to the decline in crude prices. But onshore inventories remained at their lowest levels since at least 2016, despite a 52 million-barrel increase in observed global oil stocks in October, the first rise since June.
Price indicators show the burden of tight supply on fuel buyers: the average European diesel premium over Brent crude was about $91 a barrel in September, a record, while the average U.S. retail diesel price approached $6.20 a gallon in October, according to the World Bank. The IEA said in its report published on September 11 that U.S. diesel prices exceeded $200 a barrel in early September, up 94% from pre-war levels. The agency said high diesel prices raise the cost of goods and weigh on economic activity and inflation. On U.S. inventories, an Energy Information Administration report published on November 12 showed gasoline stocks rising by about 1.8 million barrels to 210.8 million barrels in the week ended November 6. That figure is for gasoline, while diesel and international inventory indicators remain central to the pressures the agency is monitoring.
The IEA expects gasoil supply to remain below demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, meaning depleted inventories are unlikely to begin rebuilding before the second half of 2027. The agency said accelerating releases of emergency diesel stocks over the coming months would provide a vital bridge across the supply gap. IEA members agreed in early October to accelerate the release of 100 million barrels from emergency stocks through January 2027, initially giving priority to diesel, according to the World Bank. The timetable makes stock releases a temporary measure as supply shortages persist, while the agency does not expect lost inventories to be replenished quickly. The fourth-quarter and second-half-of-2027 projections remain the agency's timeline for the deficit and inventory recovery.