Global diesel availability falls 1.7 million barrels a day as shortage extends into 2027
Key Facts
Global diesel and gasoil availability fell by 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026 from the same period a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency's October report. The agency forecast that market tightness would persist into 2027, with the recovery of inventories depleted during the crisis delayed. It said rebuilding those stocks was "unlikely before the second half of 2027," an assessment that excludes normal seasonal fluctuations in storage levels. That timing refers to the start of replenishing lost volumes, beyond the increases and decreases associated with the seasonal inventory cycle. The agency's assessment came as fuel exports declined, gasoil inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries fell and wholesale prices reached record highs in European and U.S. markets.
On global trade, the International Energy Agency said diesel exports in September were about 700 thousand barrels a day below their level in the same month a year earlier. The decline in exports also extended to the cumulative total for the year, according to the Wall Street Journal's reporting on the global gasoil market. Exports averaged 4.7 million barrels a day during the first nine months of 2026, down 10% from the same period a year earlier. That average covers the period through September, which itself recorded a year-on-year decline in diesel exports, according to the agency's report. On inventories, gasoil stocks held by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries fell to 565 million barrels in July, according to the International Energy Agency.
Supply pressures included a decline in Russian fuel production, alongside a shift in refineries' product mix, according to explanations provided by the Wall Street Journal and the International Energy Agency. The newspaper said Russia had been forced to cut fuel production because of Ukrainian attacks on its refineries, adding pressure to global supplies of refined products. At refineries, tightness in the jet fuel market encouraged a shift in production toward kerosene, according to the International Energy Agency's report. The agency described refineries' strategy as seeking to "maximize kerosene production" in response to shortages in the aviation fuel market. That shift reduced gasoil yields from refining, adding the impact of production allocation among products to the pressure on supply from lower Russian output.
In markets, wholesale diesel prices rose to record highs of nearly $220 a barrel in Europe and the United States during September 2026, according to The National newspaper. The increase spanned European and U.S. markets, coinciding with a year-on-year decline in global diesel exports, according to the International Energy Agency's estimates for the same month. Meanwhile, the agency expects global oil demand to contract during 2026, according to the Associated Press's reporting on its estimates. Oil demand is forecast to decline by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day over the year compared with the level recorded a year earlier. Diesel is expected to account for 25% of that decline, according to the same estimates, while rebuilding depleted inventories remains delayed beyond normal seasonal fluctuations.
In the United States, Energy Information Administration estimates showed distillate inventories on the East Coast remaining below their seasonal benchmarks. Those stocks in September 2026 were 32% below the seasonal average for 2021–2025, according to the administration's October report. The administration expects inventories to reach their lowest level of 2027 in April, at 22.6 million barrels. The projected level for that month would be 21% below the 2021–2025 average, according to its estimates for distillate stocks in the same region. That projected path for U.S. inventories comes as Fatih Birol called on International Energy Agency member countries to assess the need for additional releases from diesel reserves.
Birol asked countries that consider additional releases appropriate to specify the volumes, timing and supplementary nature of those releases, according to the International Energy Agency's statement on conditions in the global diesel market. On refinery operations, the agency expects global throughput to reach a seasonal low in October 2026, at 81.3 million barrels a day. It then forecasts a recovery to 84.6 million barrels a day by year-end, according to the trajectory outlined in its October Oil Market Report. Those estimates place the expected recovery in refinery throughput during the remaining months of 2026 ahead of the agency's anticipated start of replenishing depleted inventories in the second half of 2027. The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release its next Oil Market Report on Friday, 13 November 2026, according to its published release calendar.