Kazakhstan’s Oil Output Exceeded Its October Target as Global Supply Rose by 2.3 Million Barrels a Day
Key Facts
Kazakhstan’s oil output exceeded its October target under OPEC+, according to the International Energy Agency’s November Oil Market Report. The target takes into account additional voluntary cuts and adjusted compensation volumes, making the comparison between actual output and the adjusted target a measure of compliance for that month. This came as global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day to 105.4 million barrels a day in October. Supply had increased by 3 million barrels a day in September. The agency attributed the latest increase to higher Gulf exports despite attacks on infrastructure and oil tankers.
Data for the previous month show that Kazakhstan’s target overrun did not prevent its output from falling from its September level. In its October report, the agency estimated the country’s September output at 1.86 million barrels a day, against an implied target of 1.63 million, or 0.24 million barrels a day above it. This estimate provides context for comparing output with the quota, but it concerns September and does not represent October figures. In its November report, the agency confirmed that October output exceeded the adjusted target for the month. This comes as Gulf supplies recover, a development the report linked to lower crude prices.
Oil exports from the Gulf, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October, but remained 26% below pre-war levels. The latest increase was led by crude flows, which rose to 15 million barrels a day, equivalent to 82% of pre-war levels. This reflects a recovery in supplies from the region, although flows remained below their previous levels. The agency said the continued recovery eased tightness in the market. It attributed to that recovery the decline in dated Brent from its October peak to its level when the report was prepared.
In the price market, dated Brent fell 32% from a peak of 136 dollars a barrel in early October to 93 dollars when the report was prepared on 13 November. The agency attributed the decline to the ongoing recovery in Gulf exports, which eased tightness in the market. The report does not attribute the price move to Kazakhstan exceeding its target, but links it to changes in Gulf supplies. This places the decline in crude prices in the context of the restoration of oil flows from the region, despite their remaining below pre-war levels. At the same time, the agency cut its global demand forecast, reinforcing the picture of a market facing the return of supply at a faster pace than expected demand.
The agency cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 2.7 million barrels a day to 102.3 million barrels a day, and expected demand to fall by the same amount over the full year. The demand revision comes alongside the increase in supply recorded in October and the recovery in Gulf exports. Observed global oil inventories also rose by 52 million barrels in October, the first increase since June. By contrast, inventories in OECD countries fell by 47 million barrels, including 41 million barrels in industry stocks. These figures highlight the divergence in inventory movements between the global total and OECD countries’ stocks during the month.
The agency expects the global oil market to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger surplus in 2027. According to the supply-and-demand balance in the November report, this means supply is recovering as forecasts point to weaker demand and a larger accumulation of surplus supply. The agency cautioned, however, that attacks on shipping pose a risk to the sustainability of the recovery. The stability of Gulf flows remains a prominent factor in its outlook, given its connection to improving supplies and easing market tightness. The agency’s next Oil Market Report is scheduled for 11 December 2026.