Bloomberg Survey Puts OPEC October Output at 22.8 Million Barrels a Day
Key Facts
A Bloomberg survey estimated that OPEC output rose by 930,000 barrels a day in October to 22.8 million barrels a day, about 88% of the same members’ output in February. Rigzone reported the figures from the survey, which offers an estimate separate from the Reuters survey cited in the news circulating on November 9. A Reuters report headline puts October output at 90% of the pre-war rate, but the report was not available to verify its details. The two percentages therefore do not represent the same comparison: Bloomberg’s figure compares output with February’s level, while the Reuters headline refers to the pre-war rate. Bloomberg’s estimate puts the monthly increase and total output at the center of the picture of supply recovery in October.
Saudi Arabia led the increase in Bloomberg’s estimate, with its output rising by 970,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million barrels a day in October. The survey said the Saudi increase was larger than the total increase it estimated for OPEC, reflecting differing output movements among members during the month. The organization’s total output, according to the same survey, was 22.8 million barrels a day after the monthly increase of 930,000 barrels a day. The 88% figure is measured against the same members’ output in February and does not refer to pre-war output levels. These figures provide a breakdown of the source of the increase without establishing explanations related to recovering production capacity or changes in regional output.
The output reading comes amid disruption to shipping routes that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee warned about in October. The committee said protecting international sea routes is essential to ensuring an uninterrupted flow of energy, and noted that attacks on infrastructure could delay the recovery of production capacity and increase market volatility. In a separate statement on October 12, ministers participating in the Declaration of Cooperation said disruption to energy flows had raised shipping and insurance costs to more than one-third of the commodity’s value, affected the movement of oil and products, and put pressure on the global economy. These statements put supply in a context that goes beyond production volumes, also involving the safety and cost of transport. The available figures did not include a dated oil-price reaction to the October output estimate.
The seven OPEC+ countries had kept required production for November at September’s level on October 4, while announcing that they would continue monthly meetings to review market conditions. The same seven countries then decided at a virtual meeting on November 1 to keep required production for December at September’s level. These decisions concern required production levels, while the Bloomberg survey estimates actual output in October; each therefore describes a different aspect of supply. In Bloomberg’s survey, a review of members’ technical capacity was linked to preparations for 2027 production targets. This process underscores the continued review of production targets amid disruption to energy flows and shipping risks.
OPEC’s monthly oil market report is due on November 11, 2026, ahead of the seven countries’ next meeting on November 29. OPEC’s statement said the meeting would be devoted to reviewing market conditions, while the Bloomberg survey reported that OPEC and its allies are reviewing production capacity ahead of setting 2027 targets at the ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29. The monthly report provides a near-term date for the release of the organization’s market data, while the end-of-month meeting is a point for reviewing conditions and discussing targets. OPEC’s statement did not specify a change to December production targets, as the earlier decision confirmed they would remain at September’s level. The 90% figure in the Reuters headline remains attributed to that survey, while Bloomberg’s published reading provides a separate estimate of 88% of February’s level.