Iranian Oil Output at 1.86 Million Barrels a Day in October, Down From September
Key Facts
The International Energy Agency estimated Iran’s oil production at 1.86 million barrels a day in October 2026, compared with 1.94 million barrels a day in September, a modest monthly decline according to its figures. The estimate places Iranian output in the context of supply disruption linked to the war, as U.S. forces continue to enforce a naval blockade aimed at limiting Iranian oil flows to the global market, the Associated Press reported on November 9. But the figures do not establish that Iran’s exports have stopped altogether; an Axios report published on November 13 said crude exports from the Gulf rose in October to 82% of prewar levels. The report also said crude flows fluctuated and in some recent periods returned to prewar levels, citing shipping-tracking companies and analysts. These data reflect the different paths of production and exports: the production figure alone does not determine how much crude reaches markets.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average crude oil production shut-ins in the Middle East fell to 2.5 million barrels a day in October, from a peak of 10.9 million barrels a day in May. This points to a reduction in the volume of production disrupted in the region during the period, although shut-ins remained in place in October. Meanwhile, the average price of Brent crude rose to $124 a barrel in the same month, up $10 from September. The administration said this was the highest average since July 2022, when the price reached $127 a barrel after adjusting for inflation. It linked the rise in prices to declining global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, shipping restrictions and higher transport costs.
Shipping data cited by Reuters via Investing.com put Iran’s crude and condensate loadings at about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels a day in August, according to estimates from Vortexa and Kpler. Loadings were about 740,000 barrels a day in July and about 2 million barrels a day in March. In a report issued on September 3, Reuters said Iranian crude loadings fell during that month to about 260,000 barrels a day, from about 1.7 million a year earlier, citing Kpler data. Reuters also reported on September 1 that Iran had gone about seven weeks without significant crude export shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to vessel-tracking data. These figures describe earlier periods of loading and export activity, while the International Energy Agency’s estimate for October production remains 1.86 million barrels a day.
On the global market, the International Energy Agency said oil supply exceeded demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran, and forecast a return to surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026. At the same time, it forecast global oil demand would contract by an average of 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026, with year-on-year demand falling by the same amount in the fourth quarter. The agency expects global demand to return to growth around March 2027 and increase by 2 million barrels a day during the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects alternative export routes, including pipelines, overland transport and ship-to-ship transfers, to help gradually reduce shut-in production. The administration said new pipeline capacity in the UAE is expected in 2027, but maintained its forecast that Iran’s exports will remain constrained.
Shipping risks remain part of the outlook for the coming period. Verisk Maplecroft, according to the Axios report, warned that shipping threats would persist in 2027, citing an increase in attacks in the previous month. The warning is linked to transport disruptions cited by the Energy Information Administration among the factors that constrained supply and raised oil transport costs. In the U.S. agency’s estimate, regional export alternatives could lead to a gradual decline in shut-ins over its forecast horizon, while Iranian exports remain constrained. The International Energy Agency, by contrast, forecast that global demand would return to growth around March 2027, after its expected contraction in 2026. These developments remain contingent on the course of supply, demand and shipping risks, as set out in the estimates of the agencies cited.