Al Jaber: Hormuz Disruption Drew Nearly 1 Billion Barrels From Global Oil Inventories

Key Facts

Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC’s chief executive, said at the opening of the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi that shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz drew nearly 1 billion barrels from global oil inventories. Al Jaber presented the figure as the toll from disruption to supply flows, as pressure also spread to fuels and liquefied natural gas. He said: "Shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has depleted nearly 1 billion barrels from global oil inventories." He warned that energy security was no longer tied only to what is produced, but also to the ability of supplies to reach markets. His message puts transport and delivery routes at the centre of the debate over the resilience of the energy system.

Al Jaber said shipping and logistics accounted for less than 5% of the cost per barrel before shipping disruption, then more than 30% after it. The change reflects a sharp rise in the costs associated with transporting and delivering oil, according to his presentation at the conference. Al Jaber did not link the comparison to the start of the war, but to the period before shipping disruption. He added that diesel inventories in some markets had fallen to their lowest seasonal levels in 35 years. He said: "Diesel inventories in some markets have fallen to their lowest seasonal levels in 35 years," indicating that the impact of supply disruption extended to refined products as well as crude oil.

The gaps Al Jaber cited also extended to the liquefied natural gas market, where he said some markets face a supply shortfall of 600 billion cubic feet. The figure puts LNG among the pressures he outlined at ADIPEC, alongside declining oil inventories and higher shipping costs. Al Jaber linked energy security to access to markets, saying the delivery point had become a measure of security alongside the production point. He said: "Energy security is measured not only at the point of production, but now also at the point of delivery." The message highlights the importance of transport routes and infrastructure connecting energy sources with consumers.

In a broader context, the International Energy Agency said flows of crude oil and products through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 20 million barrels per day before the conflict to a near halt, and that Gulf countries cut production by at least 10 million barrels per day. The agency’s member countries also decided to make 400 million barrels from emergency reserves available to the market on 11 March 2026, the largest release of its kind in the agency’s history. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that global oil inventories fell at a rate of 1.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. This places Al Jaber’s inventory estimate within a period of declines in inventories and supply flows, according to data from the two agencies. The International Energy Agency said resuming transit through Hormuz is necessary to ease pressure and restore stable flows of oil and gas.

Oil prices moved in different directions in the period after the ADIPEC speech. The average spot price of Brent crude was $124 per barrel in October, up $10 from September and the highest since July 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency said tanker attacks reduced the availability of global oil tankers and pushed up their prices. But it said increased supply in late October and early November helped bring spot Brent below $100 per barrel on 4 November. The trajectory separates October’s price rise from the subsequent decline as supply improved, without changing Al Jaber’s warning about transport costs and inventories.

Al Jaber outlined five pillars for strengthening energy security: supply availability, routes to markets, operational intelligence, investor confidence and human capital. He called for increased investment in supply infrastructure and artificial intelligence to help the sector face future shocks. ADNOC announced an agreement with OpenAI and G42 to deploy the OpenAI Frontier platform, with plans to use it in field development, well management and commercial operations. The EIA, meanwhile, expected Brent to average about $100 per barrel in November and December 2026, with oil flows from the Middle East remaining vulnerable to disruption and price volatility. The agency expects global inventories to rise at a rate of 3.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2027, and most Middle Eastern production, excluding Iran, to return to its pre-conflict average by the end of the second quarter of the year.