Al Jaber: Global Oil Inventories Have Fallen by About 1 Billion Barrels Since Hormuz Disruption

Key Facts

Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Group managing director and CEO, said global oil inventories had fallen by about 1 billion barrels since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Al Jaber made the remarks at the opening of the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi on November 2, 2026. The figure puts disruption to shipping at the center of the energy security debate, as Al Jaber linked its impact to falling inventories and the difficulty of getting supplies to markets. His remarks covered oil, diesel and liquefied natural gas, as well as the infrastructure needed to transport energy. He stressed that energy security must be measured by whether supplies reach consumers, not just by their availability at the point of production.

The disruption also affected the cost of transporting crude, according to Al Jaber, with shipping and logistics rising from less than 5% of the cost of a barrel before maritime traffic was disrupted to more than 30% at the time of his remarks. The shift means transport has become a much larger share of the cost of getting a barrel to market. In his account, the challenge was not limited to oil availability but also included the routes supplies take to reach buyers. He said: "Energy security is no longer measured only at the point of production; it is now also measured at the point of delivery." He called for investment in supply infrastructure and artificial intelligence to strengthen the sector’s ability to manage transport and operational challenges.

The pressures Al Jaber described also extended to refined products and gas: he said diesel inventories in some markets had fallen to their lowest seasonal levels in 35 years. He added that other markets faced a 600 billion cubic foot gap in liquefied natural gas supplies. His account brought together falling fuel inventories and tight gas supplies at a time when transport disruptions are challenging the delivery of energy sources to markets. Al Jaber gave no other time comparison for these two indicators in his remarks, but placed them within a broader picture of supply risks. The figures he cited underscore that the warning is not limited to crude alone.

Al Jaber’s remarks were grounded in the disruption to oil flows through the strait, which carried about 15 million barrels a day before the war, according to an Associated Press report in September 2026. The report said alternative routes and pipelines had kept some exports flowing, while detours remained costly. Tanker charter rates for vessels transiting the strait reached $1 million a day on September 11, equivalent to about $26 a barrel, according to data from Windward cited in the report. These figures provide context for the scale of flows exposed to disruption and the cost of maritime transport on that route. They also explain the importance of market access among the energy security themes Al Jaber raised.

In the broader context of inventories, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its May 2026 report that global oil inventories would fall by 2.6 million barrels a day during the year, compared with a projected decline of 0.3 million barrels a day in its April report. In the same report, the agency said Brent crude averaged $117 a barrel in April, after reaching a peak of $138 on April 7. It forecast an average price of $89 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $79 in 2027; those estimates were issued before subsequent developments. In late October, the Associated Press reported that U.S. diesel had reached about $6.32 a gallon, up 71% from a year earlier, and that Brent and U.S. crude had topped $100 a barrel on the Friday cited in the report. These figures provide separate chronological context for inventory and price forecasts and for what later market reports said.

Al Jaber set out five pillars for strengthening energy security: the availability of supplies, routes to market, operational intelligence, investment confidence and people. He linked these priorities to the need to invest in supply infrastructure and discussed deploying artificial intelligence in operations. Alongside his speech, ADNOC announced an agreement with OpenAI and G42 to deploy the Frontier platform, with plans to use it in field development, well management and commercial operations. ADIPEC 2026 is being held in Abu Dhabi from November 2 to 5, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. On inventory response, the Group of Seven announced plans in early November to release 100 million barrels of oil and products over the following weeks, after an announcement in March that International Energy Agency countries would release 426 million barrels. These steps form part of the context for the measures under consideration as supply security discussions continue during the conference.