GFL Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to $8,075 Million After Rejecting Takeover Offers
Key Facts
On November 10, GFL Environmental concluded its review of unsolicited takeover offers, and its board of directors unanimously decided to continue operating as a public company, while raising its 2026 outlook for the third time this year. The company said its decision was based on strong year-to-date results and the expected contribution from its acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. That puts its standalone growth plan at the center of the board’s decision, while the new outlook allows a comparison of expected business performance with the offers reviewed. In a separate statement, the special committee said the proposed valuation range included a premium to the share’s trading price but did not reflect the full value of the company’s standalone strategy. The committee chair affirmed that position, saying the offers “do not reflect the full value of our standalone strategy.”
Third-quarter results showed revenue rising to $2,155.3 million, up 27.2% year over year, including a 5.7% contribution from core pricing. Organic revenue growth was 7.4%, accelerating by 100 basis points from the previous quarter, according to the earnings statement. Adjusted EBITDA also rose 26.8% to $678.7 million, from $535.1 million in the third quarter of 2025. But net income from continuing operations recorded a loss of $28.0 million, after net income of $90.4 million in the year-earlier period. The figures therefore show a divergence between revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth on one hand and a swing to a loss on a net continuing-operations basis on the other.
GFL raised its fiscal 2026 revenue estimate to a range of $8,055 million to $8,075 million, from its previous range of $7,510 million to $7,530 million. It now also expects adjusted EBITDA of $2,490 million to $2,495 million, compared with previous guidance of about $2,290 million. The company raised its adjusted free cash flow estimate to about $1,020 million from about $900 million. It said strong year-to-date results and the expected contribution from the SECURE acquisition prompted it to raise guidance for the third time in 2026. The updated outlook includes the expected contribution from acquisitions completed through October 1, net of completed divestitures, and excludes the impact of acquisitions that have not yet closed.
Results for the first nine months support the outlook increase: revenue was $5,746.9 million, up 16.6% year over year, including 6.3% from core pricing. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18.4% to $1,748.4 million, compared with $1,476.3 million in the same period of 2025. Adjusted free cash flow was $484.9 million in the nine months ended September 30, compared with $331.3 million in the year-earlier period. The company expects its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to be 30.9%, an increase of 40 basis points from previous guidance despite additional pressure from diesel prices. Chief Executive Patrick Dovigi said the company has a “clear path” to improving adjusted EBITDA margins and converting free cash flow, adding that its investor day targets do not represent a ceiling on its ambitions.
GFL shares closed at $43.38 on November 11, 2026. In defending its strategy of remaining independent, the company said an improved cash flow profile could enable it to double free cash flow per share over the next five years. It added that cash flow gives it flexibility to allocate capital to organic growth, mergers and acquisitions, and returning capital to shareholders, while maintaining its leverage target. It also left the door open to secondary transactions involving some of its financial sponsor shareholders’ stakes, saying it would facilitate the process as needed. The company thus links its decision to continue operating as a public company to its cash growth and capital allocation outlook, while execution of its guidance remains tied to the expected contributions from completed acquisitions.