GFL Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance to C$8.075 Billion for Third Time
Key Facts
GFL Environmental raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of C$8,055 million to C$8,075 million, from its previous range of C$7,510 million to C$7,530 million, marking the third forecast increase this year. The company said the increase reflects the strength of its results year to date and the expected contribution from its acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. The new guidance is based on an assumed exchange rate of US$1.40 per Canadian dollar for the rest of the year. It also said revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow all came in above expectations in the third quarter. The update places both the performance of the core business and the pending acquisition at the center of the company's outlook for the rest of the year.
Third-quarter revenue was C$2,155.3 million, up 27.2% year over year, with core pricing contributing 5.7% of reported growth. Organic revenue growth was 7.4%, accelerating by 100 basis points from the previous quarter, the company said. For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, revenue totaled C$5,746.9 million, up 16.6% from the same period in 2025. These figures show that quarterly year-over-year growth exceeded the pace recorded over the nine months, while the company reported that organic growth accelerated from the second quarter. Second-quarter revenue was C$1,947.8 million, up 16.3% year over year, when the company raised its full-year guidance for the second time.
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 26.8% to C$678.7 million, from C$535.1 million in the same period in 2025. But the reported margin fell to 31.5% from 31.6%, despite the company recording underlying expansion of 115 basis points after excluding the effects of mergers and acquisitions and diesel prices. For the full fiscal year, GFL expects a margin of about 30.9%, up 40 basis points from its previous guidance, while acknowledging additional headwinds from diesel prices. In July, Chief Executive Patrick Dovigi attributed the guidance increase to organic growth trends, pricing discipline and the contribution from acquisitions completed up to that point. He said these factors "give us confidence in the increased outlook," referring to what supported the company's decision at the time.
The company also raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to a range of C$2,490 million to C$2,495 million, compared with previous guidance of about C$2,290 million. It estimated adjusted free cash flow at about C$1,020 million, versus C$900 million in the previous guidance. By contrast, it recorded a net loss from continuing operations of C$28.0 million in the third quarter, after posting net income of C$90.4 million in the same period in 2025. The contrast between improvement in adjusted metrics and the decline in net income from continuing operations stands out in the quarterly results. The company said the updated guidance includes the expected contribution from acquisitions completed through October 1, net of completed divestitures, and excludes the impact of acquisitions that have not closed.
The guidance increase came as the company reviewed unsolicited offers to take GFL private. The company said a special committee of independent members set November 9, 2026, as the deadline for interested parties to submit revised proposals, after which the committee will decide on next steps. In after-hours trading following the results and new guidance announcement, the stock rose 3.6%, according to Investing.com. EL7 data showed the stock closed at 45 on October 27, without specifying the currency in the available data. The company is scheduled to hold a conference call to discuss its third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.