USDA Cuts Global Cotton Output by More Than 470,000 Bales to 117.5 Million
Key Facts
The US Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for global cotton production in 2026/27 by more than 470,000 bales to 117.5 million bales in its report released on November 10. The department said reductions in India, Turkey, Argentina and the United States exceeded increases in Australia and China. The production revision came alongside a lower global consumption estimate, changing both sides of the season's supply and demand balance. The department raised its global export forecast by 110,000 bales, as increases in Côte d’Ivoire and Egypt exceeded a reduction in Kyrgyzstan's exports. It also lowered its estimate for global ending stocks by slightly more than 110,000 bales.
The global consumption estimate fell 335,000 bales from October to 122.7 million bales, driven mainly by cuts in Bangladesh and the United States. That is below the October forecast, which put global cotton mill use at 123.1 million bales in 2026/27, with an expected annual increase of 2.3 million bales, or 1.9%. In the current report, the department said the consumption reduction was led by the two countries, without giving further details on the size of the change in Bangladesh. The revision puts estimated demand below last month's level, after forecasts had pointed to growth in mill use during the season.
In the United States, the department cut its production forecast by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales, after lowering the national average cotton yield by 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre. Most of the reduction came from upland cotton in the Southwest, which accounted for 250,000 bales of the total revision. The region's expected average yield also fell 5%. These revisions show that the report linked the US production cut to yield estimates, with the impact concentrated in the Southwest. US reductions added to production revisions in India, Turkey and Argentina among the drivers of the lower global forecast.
The department also cut its forecast for US cotton consumption by 100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales. It attributed the reduction to mill use through September running below the pace of the previous year, which the report described as already weak. Expected US ending stocks fell by 100,000 bales to 3.70 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio declined to 27.0% from 27.5% the previous month. Globally, higher stocks in Australia partly offset reductions in Argentina, the United States and smaller exporters, bringing the net cut to slightly more than 110,000 bales.
The October estimate put global cotton stocks for 2026/27 at 5 million bales below the previous year, the lowest since the 2011/12 season. It also estimated season production at 118 million bales, before November's cut to 117.5 million. By contrast, the October estimate pointed to an increase in global cotton mill use during the season, before the November report lowered its consumption forecast to 122.7 million bales. The October estimate for the US upland cotton farm price had fallen one cent from the previous month to 77 cents per pound. The next WASDE report is scheduled for release on December 10, providing the next monthly estimates for production, consumption and stocks.