USDA Cuts Cotton Production Forecast to 13.18 Million Bales for 2026/27
Key Facts
The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate for domestic cotton production in the 2026/27 season to 13.18 million bales, according to its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The October estimate was 13.44 million bales, according to department data. The revision included a cut in the expected yield to 775 pounds per harvested acre, from a previous estimate of 790 pounds. The update puts this season’s production below last month’s estimate, as earlier department data point to crop pressure in key regions. The department also lowered its forecasts for ending cotton stocks and the season’s average farm price.
November’s forecast cuts also extended to rice, with expected production at 157.6 million hundredweight, compared with 157.7 million in October. The department revised its expected yield to 7,664 pounds per harvested acre, from 7,668 pounds in the previous estimate. The monthly change in production was limited, while the October report described the crop estimate as the lowest in 33 years. In that report, the department said a 0.4 million hundredweight reduction in production from the previous month was the reason total U.S. rice supplies declined. It also raised the expected average farm price to $15.20 per hundredweight, up 23% from the previous year.
The broader comparison in department data shows expected cotton production for 2026/27 is below the 14.41 million bales harvested in 2024/25. In its October report, the USDA described this season’s crop as the second-smallest since the 2015/16 season and said the expected national yield was the lowest since that season. The October forecast report linked weak production in the Southwest to drought conditions. The department estimated the region’s output at 4.6 million bales, below the previous season’s crop, and expected 34% of harvested acreage to be abandoned, compared with about 24% in the previous season. These estimates indicate crop pressures were already part of the department’s assessment before the November update.
In crop-condition indicators reported by the department in October, 37% of cotton acreage was rated poor or very poor as of October 4, while 33% was rated good or excellent. Some 23% of the crop had been harvested by that date, compared with the 2021–2025 average of 21% at the same point in the season. For the current season’s cotton balance sheet, the November report cut projected ending stocks to 3.70 million bales from 3.80 million in October. It also trimmed the expected average farm price to 76 cents per pound from 77 cents. In its October rice report, the department estimated ending stocks at 40.0 million hundredweight, down 32% from the previous year, while keeping projected total use at 226 million hundredweight.