Crude Exports Return to 80%–85% of Prewar Levels, Products to 35%–40%
Key Facts
Fereidun Fesharaki, honorary chairman of FGE NexantECA, said Middle Eastern crude exports, including pipeline shipments, had reached 80%–85% of prewar levels, while refined-product exports stood at 35% to 40%. The gap points to a faster recovery in crude than in refined fuels, according to his assessment, cited by Bloomberg in a report published on 10 November 2026. Fesharaki said, "Crude is being exported at about 80% to 85% of prewar levels," while "products are at about 35% to 40%." October data support the picture of an uneven recovery, with crude and condensate exports far exceeding refined-product exports. Risks to passage through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside refineries' exposure to strikes, have kept producers focused on crude shipments.
Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 14.0 million barrels per day in October, about 86% of prewar levels, according to Vortexa data cited by Reuters. Over the same period, refined-product exports stood at 3.1 million barrels per day, slightly more than half their usual volumes. Fesharaki's estimate puts product exports at 35%–40% of prewar levels, while October data describe their volume against usual levels; the figures therefore use different benchmarks. Crude, condensate and refined-product exports, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, also averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October. That total was below 18.9 million barrels per day in September and close to three-quarters of prewar levels.
Vortexa said seaborne oil exports had edged down from postwar highs as risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased. The company estimated that October's figure could be revised higher after shipments using concealed tracking signals are confirmed. On refined products, Vortexa analyst Javier Tang said most cargoes had already crossed the strait or were expected to leave through it soon. But cargo transfers within the Gulf and some vessels switching off their transponders make precise volumes difficult to determine. Tang said, "Most of those cargoes have crossed Hormuz or will soon leave through it," underscoring the continued importance of the passage for getting supplies to markets.
The risk of strikes on refineries helps explain producers' preference for shipping crude, Tang said. "Oil infrastructure, such as refineries, remains vulnerable to drone strikes," he said, adding that this had led regional producers to prioritize crude shipments. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas flows had risen to about one-third of their pre-conflict levels, according to the report published on 10 November. Crude thus remained the commodity most successfully leaving the region, while gas and refined-product flows remained below prewar levels. Domestic consumption needs also affect the supply available for export in some countries, even when overseas shipments are profitable.
China illustrates the effect of domestic constraints on fuel exports: its diesel shipments may remain limited as the country manages low domestic inventories. On supply, average Middle Eastern oil production outages stood at 2.5 million barrels per day in October, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That was down from a peak of 10.9 million barrels per day in May. The agency expects shut-in volumes to remain broadly stable through the end of 2026. These estimates place continuing production constraints in the context of an export recovery, while October shipments remain subject to revision as tanker data are completed.