Gulf Crude Exports Jump by 4.4 Million Barrels a Day, While Products Remain Below Half Their Previous Levels
Key Facts
Crude exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million in September, exceeding 75% of pre-war levels, according to the International Energy Agency. The increase helped lift global oil supply by 2.5 million barrels a day month on month to 102.3 million. But the crude recovery did not extend to refined fuels to the same extent, with shipments of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East remaining below half their pre-war levels. September’s figures show a widening gap between the return of crude supplies and the availability of products in markets. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased alongside the resumption of alternative export routes, while shipping remained exposed to security risks.
Shipments of refined oil products from the Middle East reached 1.9 million barrels a day in September, after a monthly increase of 210,000 barrels, compared with 4.7 million before the war. Liquefied petroleum gas shipments rose by 90,000 barrels a day to 670,000, compared with 1.5 million before the war. Both flows therefore remained below half their previous levels, despite the improvement recorded during the month. By contrast, Gulf crude exports rose to 13.9 million barrels a day, showing that a recovery in crude production and shipping does not mean refined supplies return at the same pace. The comparison between crude and products remains essential to understanding what reaches fuel markets, where the balance depends on flows of refined products as well as crude availability.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million in September, supported by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Exports through bypass routes, including the East-West pipeline, also increased by 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million. The figures point to improved transit and exports through alternative routes compared with the previous period, but do not mean maritime risks have ended. Reuters reported, citing Kpler, that at least 18 vessels were attacked during the two weeks through October 21, keeping the risk premium in place. Attacks on ships continue to make transport costs a factor affecting the delivery of crude and products.
The tightness in the products market is evident in global diesel trade: exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year on year in September. The International Energy Agency said the market lost 1.3 million barrels a day of Russian and Middle Eastern supplies, and increases from other sources did not fully make up the shortfall. In the same month, observed global oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels, although an increase in oil in transit by sea offset much of the 113 million-barrel drop in onshore inventories. At the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. Falling inventories, alongside the shortfall in diesel exports, add to pressure on the fuel market even as Gulf crude shipments rise.
Supply and transport disruptions were reflected in prices: the International Energy Agency said Brent futures had risen 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel when its report was prepared. The BZUSD symbol, according to EL7 data, closed at $108.82 on October 21 and then at $114.29 on October 23. These are recorded closing prices for the symbol; the agency’s figure refers to futures when its report was prepared. Separately, dated Brent crude rose by $26.17 a barrel month on month to $116.89 in September and was near $134 when the report was prepared. The indicators, recorded on different dates, show continued volatility in the crude market during the recovery in flows.
The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the decline averaging 2.6 million barrels a day for the year. The agency expects demand to recover partially by 2 million barrels a day in 2027, but to remain 620,000 barrels a day below its 2025 level. On the supply side, it expects supply to fall by an average of 5.8 million barrels a day to 100.7 million in 2026, then rise by 7.7 million in 2027. It also expects global refinery runs to reach a seasonal trough of 81.3 million barrels a day in October, before rising to 84.6 million at year-end. On October 7, the agency said its member governments had backed accelerating the release of oil stocks announced in March, giving priority to diesel stocks; about 325 million barrels had been released by that date, while releasing the remaining volumes could add about 100 million barrels to the market.