China’s Trade Surplus Hits $1.04 Trillion as Chip Exports Jump 137.1%
Key Facts
China recorded a trade surplus of $1.04 trillion between January and October 2026, topping $1 trillion for the second consecutive year, according to data cited by the Associated Press. The figure came as the value of semiconductor exports jumped 137.1% year over year in October and auto exports rose 37.6%. But the monthly surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September as imports accelerated. Reuters data showed exports grew 35.2%, above economists’ forecast of 33.5%, while imports rose faster. The divergence highlights the extent to which China’s trade momentum depends on technology and auto exports, alongside a recovery in demand for some imports.
Exports rose 35.2% in October from the same month a year earlier, following a 36.3% increase in September, Reuters reported. The result remained above economists’ forecast of 33.5%, despite a slight slowdown from the previous month. Imports, by contrast, jumped 41.6% year over year, beating the Reuters poll forecast of 32% and accelerating from 31% growth in September. The Associated Press said a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf partly contributed to the rise in imports. As a result, the monthly trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion in October from $133.5 billion in September, while the cumulative surplus remained above $1 trillion.
Semiconductors were among the main export drivers, with their value rising 137.1% in October from a year earlier, while auto exports increased 37.6%, according to the Associated Press. Over the first ten months, the dollar value of semiconductor exports climbed 111.1%, and shipments of high-tech products grew 47.9%, Reuters reported. Caixin said growth in AI-related trade reflects its expanding role in Chinese exports. But it said much of export growth was based more on higher prices than on an increase in shipment volumes. The newspaper said, "A considerable amount of growth remained driven by higher prices rather than shipment volumes," tying export value performance to product prices as well as demand volumes.
China’s surplus was spread across major markets, reaching about $266.5 billion with the United States in the first ten months and exceeding $310 billion with the European Union, according to the Associated Press. In October alone, the surplus with the United States narrowed to $32.71 billion from $34.01 billion in September, Reuters reported. The Associated Press said export strength helped offset weak domestic demand. The economy is expected to meet Beijing’s annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% in 2026, the agency reported, compared with growth of 5% the previous year. Large surpluses with trading partners remain part of the debate over restrictions and barriers that Chinese exports may face.
The CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indexes each rose 0.1% by the midday break on Nov. 10, after the trade data were released, Reuters reported. On domestic prices, the industrial producer price index rose 5.7% year over year and 0.7% month over month in October, averaging a 2.7% increase over the first ten months, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. These are October readings published on Nov. 11, not data for the publication date. Moody’s Analytics said it expects Chinese exports to remain strong through the rest of the year, led by electronics and autos. An economist at the agency warned that a slowdown in the AI boom, or a shift into a correction, could weigh on exports by lowering chip and electronics prices and reducing shipment volumes.
Risks of trade friction remain as China’s surpluses widen. An economist at Trivium China said the risk of additional tariffs and trade barriers would remain high in 2027, particularly as Chinese companies continue to expand in overseas markets. Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen, with economic relations and tariff policy likely to be in focus, Reuters reported. The Associated Press also said trade restrictions under consideration by the European Union pose a risk to Chinese exports. Moody’s Analytics meanwhile expects exports to remain strong for the rest of the year, with electronics and autos leading growth. Those expectations remain tied to sustained demand for technology products and the risk of trade barriers facing Chinese companies.