China’s Trade Surplus at $105.3 Billion in October as Imports Grow 41.6%
Key Facts
China’s trade surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion in October from $133.5 billion in September, as imports accelerated at a faster pace than exports, according to the Associated Press on Nov. 10. Imports rose 41.6% year over year, compared with a 35.2% increase in exports. Import growth exceeded the 32% forecast in a Reuters poll and accelerated from 31% in September. Export growth topped the 33.25% forecast in a Wind poll, despite slowing from 36.3% in September. October’s surplus was $105.28 billion, below the market forecast of $126.50 billion, according to Investing.com.
Chinese exports totaled $412.33 billion in October, according to customs data cited by the South China Morning Post. The month-on-month comparison shows export growth remained strong but cooled from the previous month, while import growth accelerated. The Associated Press said October’s surplus narrowed “as imports accelerated.” An Investing.com report, citing Reuters, said the yuan’s strength weighed on the value of overseas sales. The yuan reached its highest level in more than 4 years in October, after a series of strong fixes to its daily reference rate by the People’s Bank of China.
From January to October, China recorded a trade surplus of $1.04 trillion, according to the Associated Press. The agency said that put the country on track to surpass the record $1.2 trillion surplus in 2025. In the first 9 months of the year, total imports and exports rose 18.8% year over year to 39.94 trillion yuan, according to China’s State Council, citing the General Administration of Customs. Exports totaled 23.2 trillion yuan, up 16.4%, while imports reached 16.74 trillion yuan, up 22.3%. The figures reflected faster import growth than export growth over that period, as in October’s reading.
Industrial and electronic goods featured among China’s trade components in the first 9 months. Trade in industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan, up 58.9% year over year, according to State Council data. Integrated circuit exports also rose 99.1% over the same period, and electric vehicle exports increased 72.3%. The Associated Press said high-tech goods, including semiconductors and cars, supported export growth during the year. On the import side, an Investing.com report said semiconductors and data center components were the biggest drivers of growth, alongside rising domestic demand for materials tied to the expansion of AI infrastructure.
The trade figures come as the Associated Press said strong exports helped offset weak domestic demand. The agency added that China’s economy is expected to meet its official growth target of 4.5% to 5% in 2026, compared with growth of 5% in 2025. Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said, “Chinese exports will remain strong through the end of this year, led by electronics and cars.” In October, Deputy Customs Minister Wang Jun said external uncertainty, including geopolitical conflicts, could affect trade. But he said there was a foundation and support for continued growth in exports and imports in the fourth quarter.
Markets are watching for a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit, scheduled to take place in Shenzhen later in November. The Associated Press said trade is likely to be one of the prominent items on the meeting’s agenda. The trade truce between the two countries was also extended by an additional 2 months through January, providing some relief for Chinese exporters. But the agency said it remains unclear how long that relief will last. The next trade reading and talks between the two countries will put the trajectory of exports and imports in focus in the coming period.