China's exports jump 36.3% in September, trade surplus tops forecasts
Key Facts
China's dollar-denominated exports jumped 36.3% year on year in September, according to Reuters, beating market expectations as factories continued to rely on overseas shipments to absorb their production capacity. Growth accelerated from August, when exports rose 25.0% year on year, marking an improvement in foreign trade performance during the month. A Reuters poll had forecast a 25.5% increase in September, before the actual figure exceeded respondents' estimates. The export surge coincided with a widening of the monthly trade surplus to $133.5 billion, according to the Associated Press, up from $119.1 billion in August. The surplus also exceeded the average forecast of $118.10 billion in the Reuters poll, delivering a trade surprise in both export growth and the size of the surplus.
On the import side, China's purchases from abroad rose 31% year on year in September, according to the Associated Press, alongside the acceleration in export shipments. The increase was stronger than in August, when imports grew 28.2% from the same month a year earlier. Imports also exceeded the Reuters poll's forecast of 24.5% growth, while the trade surplus continued to widen as export growth outpaced imports. The cumulative trade surplus for the first nine months reached $938.11 billion, according to Reuters, with September's total adding to the balance accumulated since the start of the year. In local-currency terms, total goods trade, including exports and imports, rose 18.8% year on year to 39.94 trillion yuan over the same period, according to customs data published by China's State Council.
Integrated circuits stood out among goods recording strong growth in overseas shipments, with yuan-denominated exports rising 99.1% year on year in the first nine months, according to Chinese customs. China's State Council, citing customs, said equipment manufacturing accounted for "about 90% of the increase in exports" over the same period. Equipment's contribution to shipment growth comes as domestic demand remains weak, pushing factories to tap overseas markets to absorb their production capacity, according to Reuters. Against this backdrop, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August. China is targeting annual economic growth of between 4.5% and 5%, while exports remain an outlet for factory output amid subdued demand at home.
In markets, Asian stocks posted modest gains in early trading on the day the news was published, according to Reuters, as shares linked to artificial intelligence recovered. The improvement followed a selloff in those stocks, which gained a respite from the pressures preceding the session. The agency described regional equities as edging higher, while elevated oil prices continued to cap gains. Reuters attributed the early improvement to easing selling pressure on AI-related stocks, while overall market gains remained limited. Higher oil prices acted as a counterweight to the recovery in those shares during the same early Asian session.
On trade policy, China and the United States agreed in September to reciprocal tariff reductions, according to China's Ministry of Commerce. The agreed framework covers imports worth about $30 billion on each side, according to the ministry's announcement of the understanding between the two countries. Implementation of the reductions is contingent on both sides completing the necessary domestic legal procedures under the terms of the announced agreement. The ministry said the two sides would lower tariffs "simultaneously" after completing those procedures. The understanding thus combines reciprocal tariff reductions with a shared implementation timetable, while completion of the domestic legal process remains a condition for the cuts to take effect.
On the October trade calendar, China's Ministry of Commerce set the opening of the first phase of the Canton Fair for October 15, 2026. The fair follows September, when Chinese export and import growth accelerated and the trade surplus widened. The first phase runs through October 19, according to the schedule announced by the ministry. It takes place against a trade backdrop dominated by equipment manufacturing's contribution to overseas shipment growth and rising integrated circuit exports. On the agreement with Washington, the next step remains completion of domestic legal procedures on both sides before the simultaneous tariff reductions are implemented.