October Recapture of Dhubab Counters Claim Houthis Controlled Bab al-Mandab in November

Key Facts

Available evidence does not establish a new Houthi takeover of the Bab al-Mandab Strait on November 8. Reuters reported on September 11 that the Houthis had reached Mayyun Island, then the Associated Press said government-aligned forces recaptured Dhubab and nearby towns on October 5. In its September report, Reuters cited four Yemeni government sources who said the Houthis had reached the island in the strait. It cited two sources from Yemen’s internationally recognized government who said government forces had withdrawn from Mayyun and the Houthis had taken the coastal town of Dhubab opposite it. But the latest battlefield development cited here is the government forces’ recapture of Dhubab and areas near the strait, not confirmed Houthi control in November. This sequence means that the account of control of the strait does not describe a new development on the draft date.

According to the Associated Press, government forces recaptured Dhubab and the towns of Bab and Hadeed during an offensive that began on October 5. Officials said the forces entered the towns, while witnesses reported seeing government tanks and troops there. The agency said the government offensive began early on Monday under air cover provided by the Saudi-led military coalition. Coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said 100 fighter jets were supporting government forces. That places the recapture of Dhubab within a broader military campaign near the passage, after government sources said in September that the Houthis had taken the town.

The Houthi advance along the coast had extended, according to Reuters’ September report, to the city of Mocha and the Hanish Islands, which the agency said the group had seized on Thursday. Yemeni, Iranian and regional government sources also attributed the Houthi coastal advance that week to direction from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as part of efforts to open a new front in the war between Iran and the United States. That attribution concerns the September campaign as described in the report and does not establish direction or a new operation in November. By contrast, the Associated Press reported in October that government forces had recaptured Dhubab, Bab and Hadeed. That later development changes the picture of battlefield control following the Houthi advance reported in September.

Control of the area around Bab al-Mandab matters to shipping because 12% of global trade passes through the strait, according to the Associated Press. Concerns about shipping security had been linked to the Houthi advance reported in September, when the group reached Mayyun and government forces were reported to have withdrawn from the island. More broadly, a U.S. Department of Transportation advisory bulletin said the Houthis had carried out more than 100 separate attacks on commercial vessels between November 2023 and October 2025, affecting more than 60 countries. That tally provides context for maritime risks in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, but it is not a figure for new attacks in November 2026. The evidence cited here also does not establish a new market impact resulting from a battlefield development on that date.

The oil figures that earlier coverage linked to the tensions relate to periods before November 8. A September report by Ynet said crude prices rose at least 5% on Thursday and Brent crude reached $106 a barrel that day. On October 6, the Associated Press reported that Brent was near $100 a barrel, compared with about $70 before the Iran war. These prices are not readings for the market on November 5 or November 8, and they do not isolate the effect of Dhubab’s recapture from other factors affecting oil. The market figures in the evidence therefore remain tied to their respective dates and do not support a conclusion about price movements on the draft date.

On maritime security, the British government said in a parliamentary answer dated September 10 that it was working with international allies to protect trade, and noted that the maritime partnership included more than 35 international partners. The government said it had allocated $4 million to the partnership, which had secured international pledges exceeding $20 million. In a separate October report, the Associated Press said government and Saudi forces had launched a campaign to drive the Houthis from the area around the strait, and also pointed to an increase in Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. The agency reported a warning from the U.S. president that broad military operations could resume after November’s congressional elections. These are positions and plans reported on specific dates; on their own, they do not determine the outcome of the confrontation or the status of control on November 8.