BASF raises 2026 EBITDA forecast to €7.4–7.8 billion
Key Facts
On October 28, BASF raised its forecast for 2026 EBITDA before special items to a range of €7.4–7.8 billion, from €6.9–7.7 billion previously, after third-quarter results improved in several of its core segments. The company said higher prices and volumes supported sales, while earnings growth in its core businesses offset declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. The revision raises the lower end of the forecast and lifts the upper end slightly. BASF, meanwhile, left its expected free cash flow range for the year unchanged at €1.5–2.3 billion. The revision puts performance in the remaining months of the year at the center of assessing the company’s ability to convert improved earnings into cash.
Third-quarter sales were €16.360 billion, up 14.2% from €14.328 billion in the same period of 2025. EBITDA before special items rose to €1.643 billion from €1.430 billion, an increase of 14.9%. BASF attributed sales growth mainly to a 12% increase in prices and a 2% rise in volumes, while positive currency effects across all segments, particularly the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan, also contributed. The company said the increase in EBITDA before special items was 15%, to around €1.6 billion. Earnings grew in Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials and Industrial Solutions, exceeding declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies.
The improvement extended to results for the first nine months of the year, with EBITDA before special items at €6.448 billion, compared with €5.521 billion in the same period of 2025. Sales for the period rose to €49.586 billion from €45.625 billion. But improved operating earnings did not fully translate into quarterly net income: BASF reported net income of €155 million in the third quarter, compared with €172 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share, by contrast, were €0.72, up from €0.52. These indicators show a divergence between growth in earnings before special items and net income, alongside year-on-year improvement in adjusted earnings per share.
EBIT recorded a loss of €98 million in the third quarter, compared with a profit of €232 million a year earlier. EBITDA special items included transformation and restructuring costs and the settlement of a legal dispute, totaling negative €437 million. Free cash flow reached €523 million, an increase of €125 million from the same period a year earlier. BASF said cash was tied up in inventories amounting to €507 million, compared with a release of €6 million in the same quarter a year earlier, mainly due to higher raw-material prices. Net debt was €16.652 billion on September 30, 2026, down from €20.891 billion on the same date in 2025.
The results came as BASF said global GDP growth was around 2.5% in the third quarter. It described global chemicals production as having largely stalled compared with a strong quarter a year earlier, while U.S. production fell 4.5%. The company said pressure from higher energy prices and trade disputes was offset by momentum in technology investment and relatively stable demand for services. This environment highlights the contrast between weak chemical activity in some markets and support from technology and services investment. Prices, volumes and currencies also remain key factors in explaining the company’s sales growth during the quarter.
BASF continued its share buyback program, purchasing 355,128 shares for €18,443,972.13 between October 26 and 30. The current program has a maximum value of €1 billion, was approved on July 29, 2026, and is scheduled to run until the end of April 2027. It is part of a broader plan to repurchase shares worth a total of €4 billion by the end of 2028. In trading after the results announcement, the company’s depositary receipts closed at $14.97 on October 30, $14.96 on November 3, then $15.70 on November 5 and $15.07 on November 6. On November 3, STOXX 600 futures fell by more than 1%, while DAX and IBEX futures dropped around 1% amid reports of U.S. strikes on Iran and rising oil prices.
BASF set February 26, 2027, as the date for publishing its 2026 annual report. It is scheduled to release its first-quarter statement and hold its annual shareholders’ meeting on April 29, 2027. The annual report will present the full-year results, while the April date combines disclosure of first-quarter performance with the shareholders’ meeting. The company also kept its 2026 free cash flow forecast unchanged at €1.5–2.3 billion, alongside the increase in its EBITDA before special items range. These forecasts remain a benchmark for comparing the year’s results when the report is published.