BASF Raises 2026 Earnings Range to €7.4–7.8 Billion After Third-Quarter Growth
Key Facts
On October 28, BASF raised its 2026 forecast for earnings before special items to a range of €7.4 billion to €7.8 billion, from €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion, lifting both the floor and the ceiling. The chairman said strong year-to-date performance in the core businesses had given the company confidence to raise the forecast range. The move followed a year-on-year increase of €213 million in EBITDA before special items to €1.6 billion in the third quarter. Quarterly sales rose to €16.4 billion, up €2 billion from the same period. The company said, "Strong year-to-date performance in our core businesses gives us confidence to raise our earnings forecast range before special items."
Sales came to €16.4 billion, about 5% above the average analyst estimate in a survey compiled by BASF, according to Reuters. The company attributed sales growth to pricing in its Chemicals, Materials, Surface Technologies and Industrial Solutions segments, as well as positive currency effects, particularly from the dollar and Chinese yuan. In Greater China, sales grew by about a third, with volumes up 20%. But the expansion was not evenly spread across all businesses: Agricultural Solutions sales fell 20% year on year, making it the exception as revenue growth broadened across the rest of the businesses. BASF plans to list its Agricultural Solutions business on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by mid-2027.
At the earnings level, Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials and Industrial Solutions contributed to the increase in EBITDA before special items, outweighing declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. The margin on this measure was 10.0%, unchanged from the same period a year earlier. Reported EBITDA was €1.2 billion, at the same level as a year earlier, and included negative special items of €437 million. BASF said these items were related mainly to transformation and restructuring expenses and the settlement of a legal dispute in its Care Chemicals division. The figures therefore showed year-on-year growth in earnings before special items, while reported earnings remained stable after special items.
Depreciation and amortization rose to €1.3 billion in the third quarter, from €976 million a year earlier, including an impairment of €318 million in the Monomers division. Net income was €155 million, compared with €172 million in the same period of 2025. By contrast, adjusted earnings per share, excluding special items and amortization of intangible assets, increased to €0.72 from €0.52. These indicators show different paths for quarterly results: adjusted earnings before special items rose, net income declined and adjusted earnings per share increased. EBITDA before special items exceeded analysts’ average estimates, while net income fell year on year.
BASF kept its 2026 free cash flow forecast unchanged at €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion. It also maintained its economic assumptions for the year, citing continued global geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Those assumptions include GDP growth of 2.5%, industrial production growth of 2.0% and chemical production growth of 1.8%. The company assumes an annual average Brent crude price of $80 a barrel and an average euro exchange rate of $1.17. Its forecast for carbon dioxide emissions also remained unchanged at 17.2 million to 18.2 million metric tons.
BASF shares edged higher in early Frankfurt trading on October 28, according to Reuters. The company’s U.S. depositary receipts closed at $14.57 on October 27, compared with $14.8 on October 21. BASF’s calendar lists a Capital Markets Day on November 23, 2026, while the company scheduled its analyst and investor conference on 2026 financial results for February 26, 2027. Both dates come after the earnings forecast update and the confirmation that the free cash flow range and economic assumptions were unchanged. The February conference will cover full-year results.