Gold Jumps 3.4% to $4,059.95 as Dollar Falls After Elections
Key Facts
Spot gold rose 3.4% to $4,059.95 an ounce at 2:04 p.m. Eastern time on November 4, while December futures settled at $4,073, up by the same percentage. Reuters said the metal was on track for its biggest daily gain since mid-August after the dollar fell following Democrats’ victories in the U.S. midterm elections. Gold reclaimed the $4,000-an-ounce level in the same session. The move followed a retreat to $3,869.85 on October 30, its lowest level since October 2025. According to EL7 data, gold settled at $4,073 on November 4, compared with $3,940.4 in the previous session.
Reuters attributed part of the support to weakness in the U.S. currency, as a lower dollar made bullion priced in dollars less costly for buyers holding other currencies. The agency said investors were also weighing the possibility that tighter regulation of artificial intelligence could slow growth. In a possible political interpretation, market analyst Jim Wyckoff said a Congress likely to be gridlocked on much legislation could be negative for the U.S. economy. He added that it "could allow the Federal Reserve to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy." The view presents a possible channel through which political division could affect monetary-policy expectations, while the dollar’s movement remained a direct factor in gold pricing during the session.
Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, according to the Associated Press, which said the result would reshape the final two years of Donald Trump’s term and constrain his legislative agenda. The agency said party leaders had hinted at using their new majority to investigate senior administration officials and scrutinize how the Trump family had enriched itself. The political result formed the backdrop to the dollar’s decline and gold’s rise, but price movements alone do not determine how much of the move was due to the elections compared with other factors. The link to the falling U.S. currency remained clearer in Reuters’ direct explanation of the gains. The political backdrop also intersects with Wyckoff’s assessment that legislative gridlock could weigh on the U.S. economy.
The rally extended into November 5, when spot gold rose 1% to $4,100.27 an ounce at 2:05 p.m. Eastern time after reaching a session high of $4,146.63, a level not seen since October 20. Reuters said the dollar approached its lowest level since September 30 that day, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to a level near its lowest in about two months. A weaker dollar made gold priced in dollars less costly for holders of other currencies. Gold settled at $4,113.5 on November 5, according to EL7 data, after settling at $4,073 the previous day. It then settled at $4,079.6 on November 6.
In the labor market, U.S. jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week ended October 31 from 195,000 the previous week, their lowest since mid-July, according to the Associated Press. Claims remained at 200,000 or below for eight consecutive weeks. The reading points to a decline in recorded layoffs, while the path of interest rates remains a factor in gold-market calculations. Metals trading director David Meger said lower energy prices could ease inflation concerns and reduce the potential need for rate increases later. He added that "weak energy prices could ease some inflation concerns and reduce the likelihood of the need for interest-rate increases in the future."
On November 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December stood at 66%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Reuters reported. Investors were awaiting the nonfarm payrolls report due the following day for signals about the monetary-policy path. Data released later showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, while the unemployment rate was 4.1%. After the report was released on November 6, the probability of a December rate increase rose to 81% from 72.8% beforehand, according to Reuters. These developments kept interest-rate expectations among the factors gold traders monitored after the rally.