Gold Rises 1% Above $4,100 as Stocks Fall and Rate-Hike Bets Ease
Key Facts
Gold rose about 1% on Thursday, November 5, moving above $4,100 an ounce after rebounding from an intraday low of $4,057, according to an FXStreet report. The advance came in a session marked by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks and fading bets on a December rate hike, putting the precious metal at the center of investors’ moves between assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell six basis points to 4.829%, while the dollar index was little changed at 101.46 after recovering from an intraday low of 101.19. The dollar’s decline was therefore not a direct driver of gold’s move during the session, according to the figures cited in the report. The fall in yields and shifting rate expectations coincided with a broad selloff in stocks as investors reassessed risks.
Technology stocks led the decline: the Nasdaq 100 fell about 5.9%, while the Dow Jones dropped 2.9% and the S&P 500 fell 3.8%, according to FXStreet. A Reuters report carried by MarketScreener described Thursday’s session as a selloff led by technology and artificial intelligence stocks, citing declines of 5.5% in the Nasdaq Composite, 4.4% in the S&P 500 and 3.4% in the Dow Jones. The S&P 500’s drop wiped out the previous day’s gains, according to the Associated Press, marking its steepest one-day decline since the April 2025 tariff shock, while the previous day’s gains had been the strongest in three months. The figures reflect different measures of market indexes, but all point to a broad selloff during the session. Gold rose amid this sharp decline, rather than in a session when stocks advanced.
Bets on a rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting declined, with the probability tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool of a 25-basis-point hike falling to 66%, from 82% a day earlier. Even so, a December hike remained the outcome the tool favored at the time, and bets on one had not disappeared. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said inflation remained broadly too high, while backing a gradual approach to rate increases. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack had said she preferred a gradual approach and that the central bank still had more work to do. The remarks place the retreat in hike probabilities within officials’ debate over inflation and the path of tightening, without indicating that the next meeting’s decision has been settled.
U.S. data showed a contrast between the labor market and the inflationary pressures cited by Federal Reserve officials. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 31 fell to 189,000 from 195,000 the previous week, below expectations of 196,000. In a separate report cited by FXStreet from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts rose to 43,994 in October from 43,281 in September, an increase of 2%. But companies announced plans to hire 444,692 workers during October, up 57% compared with 2025. These indicators provide a mixed backdrop for rate expectations, alongside falling yields and shifting market bets on the December decision.
The Federal Reserve had held its target rate range at 3.75% to 4% at its October 28 meeting, with Hammack dissenting in favor of raising the range by a quarter percentage point. The central bank said in its statement that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and inflation remained elevated. In the subsequent session covered by these figures, traders’ expectations for the timing of the next increase were pushed back: Reuters reported that they had delayed the expected hike to March 2027 and that markets were not fully pricing in another increase before that month. The contrast between the 66% probability of a December hike in FedWatch data and the expected timing being pushed back to March reflects differing market measures and readings, not an announced central bank decision. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for December 8 and 9, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar.