Brent Falls 1% as Mediation Continues and Fears Grow of Renewed Strikes on Iran

Key Facts

Brent crude fell 1% in Tuesday’s session, November 3, 2026, settling at $103.60 a barrel, its lowest close since October 7, as traders weighed hopes for progress in peace talks against the risk of supply disruptions. Reuters reported that prices fell as the market tracked the possibility that mediation efforts could lead to a de-escalation related to the Strait of Hormuz. The move in the oil market came as military strikes and their possible resumption remained in view, with no clarity on when U.S. forces would be ready to resume operations after Election Day. Reuters said Washington and Tehran were reviewing proposals aimed at narrowing their differences, while mediators sought to advance a formula that would halt Iranian attacks in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade. That put the course of negotiations and supply risks at the center of oil pricing during the session.

A U.S. official told The Associated Press that U.S. strikes on Monday targeted Iranians who had used surface-to-air missiles against the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. The official explanation indicates that the direct confrontation in the waterway was the focus of the operations the official confirmed, while the agency’s published report provided no further details about the targets or the extent of the damage. At the same time, The Associated Press cited diplomats as saying the United States had told regional allies that any new round of military operations could last several days. It was unclear, the agency said, when U.S. forces would be ready to resume possible strikes after Election Day. It also reported that countries in the region were preparing for the possibility of an Iranian and factional response that could widen the confrontation, and had taken precautions against attacks on energy facilities and critical infrastructure.

Fears of an escalation are coinciding with efforts to halt attacks in the strait and ease the U.S. blockade. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters that the United States and Iran remained committed to mediation efforts and were reviewing proposals to bring their positions closer. The mediation formula reported by The Associated Press sets a direct exchange between a halt to Iranian attacks in the strait and Washington lifting its blockade, making maritime security and sanctions part of a single negotiating track. A Reuters report in September also said negotiators were discussing a phased path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the U.S. economic blockade on Iran. Former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross then put the chance of reaching an agreement before the midterm elections at 30%, in an assessment made before Tuesday’s session.

On the political front, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he and President Donald Trump felt positive about the prospects for reaching a negotiated settlement, according to The Associated Press. The agency also reported that talks were under way to avoid a resumption of the war, and that Washington’s regional allies were pressing it not to return to military operations. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called on Iran and the United States to engage in dialogue and reach an agreement, warning of further military escalation in the region. The UAE foreign ministry also urged the parties to act with wisdom and pursue political solutions to contain tensions and prevent a return to large-scale operations. By contrast, Iranian media quoted chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying, "The ball is now in America’s court to prevent war," adding that Iranian forces were at the highest level of defensive readiness.

The next step remains tied to the outcome of diplomatic contacts and whether the proposals lead to an understanding that halts attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in return for the lifting of the blockade. The Associated Press said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a weekend call with Trump, pushed for another wave of strikes on Iran after the U.S. elections. The agency did not specify a date for any new action, and said the timing of U.S. forces’ readiness to resume possible strikes was unclear. These developments keep escalation risks in play alongside continued mediation, as the oil market watches the impact of any progress or setback on supply security through the strait. Tuesday’s settlement had already marked Brent’s lowest close since October 7, with talks and supply disruption risks remaining opposing forces in price movements.