Washington Carries Out Limited Defensive Strikes in Strait of Hormuz Ahead of Tuesday’s Election
Key Facts
The United States carried out defensive strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranians using surface-to-air missiles targeted U.S. assets, according to a U.S. official cited by the Associated Press. Iranian media reported hearing explosions on Qeshm Island. The report described the strikes as appearing limited and not a return to full-scale hostilities. The last known U.S. attacks took place in early September. The move puts the security of shipping through the strait at the center of the escalation, as efforts to contain the confrontation diplomatically continue.
The strikes came ahead of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday, after Trump had said Washington would not strike Iran before the vote, according to AP. In a call over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for a rapid, broad air campaign, according to people familiar with the matter cited by the agency. But Trump did not commit to military action and had not made a decision on it. This reflects a divergence between Israel’s call to expand military pressure and Washington’s stated caution ahead of the election. The war and its impact on gasoline prices and the U.S. economy have also become a vulnerability for Republicans as they seek to retain control of Congress, according to AP.
October saw the highest number of attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since March, amid Iran’s efforts to increase economic pressure on the United States to lift the blockade, according to AP. In a separate incident, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said an unidentified projectile struck a vessel transiting the strait and punctured it, and that all crew members were safe. These incidents keep risks to shipping in the regional spotlight. U.S. allies in the Middle East have warned that further strikes could destabilize the region. A regional official said the escalation could prompt the Houthis to step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping in the Red Sea, and that Iran-backed militias in Iraq could also become involved.
By contrast, Vice President JD Vance said Washington had held “a number of good conversations” with the Iranians, and that he and Trump saw opportunities for a negotiated settlement. He added that an agreement would require a firm, verifiable Iranian commitment not to rebuild its nuclear program. In parallel, Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials during the week before AP’s report, seeking a framework under which Iran would halt its attacks in the strait in return for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Further talks were scheduled during the week. Iran said it had a two-day plan to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks if Washington met its demands, including lifting the blockade of its ports.
Thousands of U.S. troops remain in waters off Iran to maintain a naval blockade aimed at preventing Iranian oil tankers from reaching the global market, according to AP. The agency added that a third aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops were heading to the Middle East. On September 5, U.S. Central Command announced that its forces had struck three Iranian oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. warships. The commander said at the time that U.S. forces would defend themselves. Trump estimated the war had cost U.S. taxpayers at least 47 billion dollars, according to the report.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday as signs emerged that renewed diplomatic efforts were making progress toward ending the war between the United States and Iran, according to AP. Trump pointed to the price decline in a speech in Washington. On the broader diplomatic front, China said it planned to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November, with the aim of easing tensions and promoting regional stability. At the Manama Dialogue, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the distance between Washington’s and Tehran’s positions raised concerns about the worst if the gap was not narrowed. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that any further escalation would be more dangerous and destructive and would lead nowhere.
On the energy calendar, OPEC said seven countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement met virtually on November 1 and kept required production for December at September’s level, setting November 29 for their next meeting. On U.S. data, the Energy Information Administration scheduled its weekly petroleum status report for November 12 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time because of the Veterans Day holiday. The two dates correct what the previous draft reported about the OPEC+ meeting and the inventory report. The next diplomatic steps center on additional talks during the week and the Chinese envoy’s mission in the first half of November. The U.S. position on Netanyahu’s call to expand the strikes had not been decided, according to AP.