Estimated 5.267 Million-Barrel Draw in U.S. Crude Stocks Unconfirmed Ahead of Government Data
Key Facts
The estimated 5.267 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended October 30 could not be verified; the figure was attributed to the American Petroleum Institute in trading on Tuesday, November 3. Before the institute’s estimate was released, analysts had forecast companies would add 0.9 million barrels to inventories that week. If realized, that would have been the first inventory increase in five weeks, Reuters reported. Energy Information Administration data show crude inventories stood at 693.208 million barrels in the week ended October 23. The direction of inventories in the latest week therefore remains uncertain pending the government data.
Analysts’ estimates ahead of the weekly reading came against a backdrop of earlier inventory declines in the EIA series. Inventories fell from 707.117 million barrels in the week ended October 2 to 693.208 million in the week ended October 23, with the series recording weekly declines on October 9, 16 and 23. These figures are government data for prior weeks and do not determine the result for the week ended October 30. In the year-over-year comparison cited by Reuters, an expected increase of 0.9 million barrels would follow a rise of 5.2 million barrels in the corresponding week a year earlier. This comparison distinguishes analysts’ forecast for the current week from the increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
The previous API reading showed a decline of 2.031 million barrels, according to economic-calendar data for crude inventories in the October 27 release. The calendar listed a forecast increase of 2.100 million barrels for the next release on November 3, a pre-release estimate rather than an actual figure for the week ended October 30. In the same comparison, the actual previous reading on October 27 was a draw of 2.031 million barrels, while the published forecast for the subsequent release was 2.100 million barrels. This distinction remains necessary when comparing weekly forecasts with actual readings. These data do not confirm the estimated 5.267 million-barrel draw.
In the oil market, Brent futures fell $1.33, or 1%, to $103.44 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 56 cents, or 1%, to $95.90 at 1:18 p.m. Eastern time. Reuters said the market was weighing peace talks against concerns over supply disruptions. The two crude benchmarks fell in the same session ahead of the release of government inventory data. Reuters’ report does not identify the price moves as a response to a confirmed weekly inventory figure. Timing remains important in reading the market, as the circulating draw figure was attributed to an API estimate and the subsequent government data had not yet been released.
The EIA’s outlook places pressure on U.S. inventories in the broader context of movements beyond a single week. In its August outlook, the agency said commercial inventories would remain below the lowest level of the five-year average spanning 2021 to 2025 through the end of 2026. It attributed this path to higher exports, lower imports and strong refinery runs. It also reported that commercial inventories fell by about 25 million barrels in May, 15 million in June and 4 million in July 2026. The agency expected net crude imports to remain below average through the end of its forecast horizon.
The EIA’s weekly report covers more than crude inventories; it also provides statistics on crude and petroleum product supplies. The agency uses total products supplied as a proxy for U.S. oil demand, making the report a source for tracking supply and a demand indicator. The report is usually released on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. The EIA series lists November 4, 2026, as the date for the next data release, while the announced delay applies to the data week ended November 6, which was moved to Thursday, November 12, because of the Veterans Day holiday. The focus is therefore first on the data scheduled for November 4, followed by the revised release date for the following week.