U.S. Crude Inventories Fall 1.9 Million Barrels to 410.6 Million

Key Facts

U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, defying analysts’ expectations for an increase of 15,000 barrels. The official report was released on October 28, confirming the preliminary estimate published earlier. The draw marked a fourth consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 3.061 million barrels in the week ended October 16. Inventories thus posted another decrease even as a Reuters poll pointed to a slight increase. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell during the week, while data on refined products showed a different trend for gasoline.

The decline was not limited to total inventories: stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the main delivery point for U.S. futures contracts, fell by 624,000 barrels. Gulf Coast inventories also dropped to their lowest level since December 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration. On the flows side, U.S. net crude imports fell by 796,000 barrels per day during the week. Exports, by contrast, rose 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.85 million barrels per day. These moves put the inventory decline in the context of higher shipments abroad and lower net imports, alongside falling stocks in key regions.

Gasoline inventories moved in the opposite direction from crude, rising to 209.18 million barrels in the week ended October 23 from 205.31 million barrels in the previous week. At refineries, crude inputs were 16.526 million barrels per day, while the operating capacity utilization rate reached 92.8%. The Energy Information Administration said on October 22 that refinery utilization exceeded 95% of capacity between May and September, the highest level for those months since 1998. The agency attributed the high operating rates in part to tight global distillate supplies. The weekly data show a divergence between falling crude production and inventories on one hand and rising gasoline stocks on the other.

The U.S. figures came as the Energy Information Administration tracked a global inventory deficit. The agency estimated that global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, and forecast a further decline averaging 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. It also assumed that constraints on oil flows from the Middle East would continue through the end of the fourth quarter, with average disrupted production of 4.5 million barrels per day over that period. Against the backdrop of prices, the agency said the average spot Brent price was $114 per barrel in September, up $23 from August, and reached $131 on September 15 amid supply disruption. These estimates reflect broader pressure on the market balance, alongside the draw recorded in the United States.

After the report was released on October 28, Brent futures traded at $115.66 per barrel, up $1.78, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose $2.48 to $102.38 at 11 a.m. Eastern time, according to Reuters. Reuters linked the rise in oil prices that day to concerns about supply disruption tied to fighting in Yemen, an attack on a Saudi refinery and fears of a U.S. strike on Iran. These concerns provide context for the market moves, without attributing the increase solely to the inventory report. In its October 6 report, the Energy Information Administration had forecast an average spot Brent price of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. It projected an average of $84 in 2027.

The Energy Information Administration’s next weekly oil inventories report is scheduled for November 4, 2026. The agency’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on November 10, 2026. The upcoming inventory data will provide a fresh reading on crude and refined product trends following the decline recorded in the week ended October 23. These releases remain part of a series of weekly reports measuring inventories and flows in the U.S. market. The next forecast is due after October’s estimates, which covered supply constraints and price levels.