VIX falls 11.19% to 18.50 points after Democrats win Congress
Key Facts
The VIX volatility index fell more than 11% to below 19 points in trading on November 4, after Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the U.S. midterm elections. A market snapshot cited by Reuters showed the index at 18.50 points, down 11.19%, as investors assessed the election result. The victory marks the start of a period of divided government in Washington, according to Reuters. The VIX measures the market's near-term volatility expectations implied by S&P 500 options prices. Its decline that day therefore places market moves in the context of investors reassessing election-related risks, without by itself meaning those risks have disappeared.
The initial reaction in U.S. futures was not calm: Nasdaq 100 futures fell by as much as 2.4%, while S&P 500 futures declined 1.4% after the results emerged, according to Reuters. Futures then stabilized as investors assessed the Democrats' sweeping victory. This sequence shows that the VIX's decline to 18.50 points came during a session that first saw a sharp drop in futures and then a later stabilization; it is not evidence of an immediate rise in stocks. The election result itself gave Democrats control of both chambers, opening a period of political division in Washington. At the time of Reuters' report, Democrats had won all 20 House races that had been called.
Investors tracked the result's potential implications for economic policy issues, including tighter regulation of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, higher taxes and expanded oversight, according to Reuters coverage. Concerns about political gridlock also came to the fore amid divided control of government institutions. An investment strategist said potential restrictions on the artificial intelligence sector could make the U.S. economy, inflation and monetary policy "highly uncertain." These concerns stand out because, in the strategist's assessment, any change in the sector's rules could affect economic and price expectations and the path of monetary policy. Reuters covered these issues as factors investors were weighing after the results emerged, not as a confirmed explanation for the VIX's decline.
The VIX closed at 20.51 points on November 3, before the November 4 session, after falling 3.03% that session, according to data cited by Cboe. That puts the previous session's close in chronological comparison with the 18.50-point reading and the index's 11.19% decline the next day. On the political news, a Reuters report linked the electoral shift to voters' frustration with the war with Iran, concern about the rising cost of living and dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's performance. These factors provide political context for the election result, which was followed by moves in futures and stock-option prices. But on their own, they do not establish a direct cause for the index's move on November 4.
In economic data released before the index's move, U.S. job openings totaled 7.523 million in September, after the August reading was revised to 7.190 million; the Bureau of Labor Statistics described the level as little changed. The figures were for September and August, not new labor-market data from the session in which the VIX fell. Factory orders rose 1.8% in September to $677.2 billion, after a 0.3% increase in August. Shipments rose 1.3% to $668.5 billion in September, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. These figures place labor-market and industrial-sector indicators in the economic backdrop available during November 4 trading, without the sources attributing the VIX decline to them.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its October Job Openings and Labor Turnover report on December 1, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. That will be the next economic report listed in the bureau's data, following September's reading of 7.523 million job openings and the revision of August to 7.190 million. The VIX move in the Reuters snapshot, meanwhile, was specific to trading on November 4, when the index stood at 18.50 points. Until the October report is released, September's figures remain the latest job-openings reading among the facts available here.