S&P Futures Fall 0.5% and Nasdaq 0.9% as Election Results Begin to Emerge
Key Facts
S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% and Nasdaq futures 0.9% in the snapshot cited in a Reuters report published at 01:04 GMT on November 4, as investors awaited the results of the U.S. midterm elections. The move came as vote results began to take shape, but control of both chambers of Congress had not been decided at the time of the report. Democrat Jon Ossoff won re-election in Georgia, the first major race to be called that night, as polling stations closed in 7 states. Democrats were favored to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate race remained closely contested between the two parties. Investors therefore focused on the size of any potential majority and how the result might differ from expectations, as well as what it could mean for policies regulating the technology sector.
In the Senate, 35 seats were up for election on November 3, and at least 9 races were classified as competitive between the two parties, according to Reuters. The agency said Democrats won the first of the contested seats, while control of the chamber remained undecided in that snapshot. Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone, said the shape of the majority could matter more than the identity of the winning party alone in determining the market reaction. He said a "narrow blue wave may have been largely priced in," indicating the result might not surprise investors if it came close to the expected scenario. The degree of certainty, rather than simply one party's lead, therefore remained central to assessing the impact of the results on trading.
Asian markets presented a mixed picture in successive updates on Wednesday. In the early snapshot reported by Reuters, the MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan rose 0.4%, South Korean shares gained more than 2%, while the Nikkei lost 1.5% after trading resumed following a holiday. But as election results came in, the Associated Press reported that the Nikkei fell 3.6% to 60,835.36 points, its lowest level since early May. South Korea's Kospi index fell 3.2% to 5,466.83 points, with SK Hynix shares down 3.2% and Samsung Electronics shares down 1.8%. These figures reflect the shift from an early snapshot to later trading in the same session, as losses widened in the Japanese and South Korean indexes.
The potential impact of tighter scrutiny of artificial intelligence and large technology companies remained among the factors investors were watching. Saxo analyst Charu Chanana said the steeper decline in Nasdaq futures reflected concerns that a change in political control could bring greater regulatory scrutiny of the sector. By contrast, AMD's results and outlook offered supportive signals for chip stocks: the company forecast fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%. The company said the midpoint of its forecast range represented annual growth of about 66%. The outlook comes as investors seek to balance growth prospects for chip businesses against the possibility of a changing regulatory environment for the technology sector.
U.S. stocks had shown a mixed performance within the market in Tuesday's session on November 3, before the results began to emerge. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% despite declines in most of its constituent stocks, while the Dow Jones fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, according to the Associated Press. An analyst at Edward Jones noted that the S&P 500 had posted a positive return in every six-month period following a midterm election since 1970. By contrast, an investment analyst at Siebert Financial said he expected some volatility overnight and the following day, but did not consider it unusual compared with 2016. The market's immediate reading remained tied to the flow of results and how clearly control of Congress would be established, while AMD's fourth-quarter 2026 revenue forecast was a later point of focus for the performance of the chip sector.