Trump Has Not Decided on Iran Strikes After Qeshm Attack as Talks Seek to Contain Escalation
Key Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on resuming strikes on Iran, despite Washington informing regional allies to prepare for the possibility of new military action after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, according to the Associated Press. This follows a limited U.S. strike that Trump confirmed in a television interview, as diplomatic efforts continue to avert a broader escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The agency said it was unclear when the U.S. military would be ready to act after Election Day. Reports had mentioned the possibility of a new round beginning on November 4, but that date could not be verified through a reliable open source. The uncertainty leaves the paths of escalation and negotiation running in parallel.
A U.S. official told the Associated Press that the latest strikes targeted Iranians who were using surface-to-air missiles against the United States in the strait. The agency reported that Iranian state media said explosions were heard on the islands of Qeshm and Hengam and in nearby Bandar Abbas. Trump confirmed that the United States struck an anti-aircraft facility the previous night, describing the attack as "minor," according to Agence France-Presse. These accounts indicate that a strike has already taken place, while a decision on broader operations remains unresolved. U.S. officials had previously told Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for the possibility of renewed military action and a possible Iranian response.
The expanded U.S. military presence in the Gulf forms part of the backdrop to the tensions. The Associated Press said the Defense Department had sent the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt and amphibious ships carrying Marines, for a total of nearly 9,000 troops. The agency reported that Trump had reiterated that he was considering ordering new military action after the November 3 election. In contrast, the Associated Press cited regional officials and a person familiar with the matter as saying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump to launch a new wave of strikes after the election during a weekend call. An Emirati presidential adviser told the agency that his country hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough mediated by Qatar to avert another confrontation. He warned that military solutions "would complicate an already complicated picture and would not provide quick exits."
On the diplomatic front, the Associated Press said mediators were seeking a framework to end Iranian attacks in the strait in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade, and that efforts had made progress. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said, in comments carried by Reuters via Fox News, that the two sides were reviewing proposals and that intensive regional efforts were under way to avoid escalation. The ministry said "intensive joint regional efforts are under way to avoid escalation." According to the Associated Press, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear program if Washington lifted the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The conditions reported by the agency included exempting Iranian oil sales from sanctions and a commitment to a ceasefire that includes Lebanon.
In Tehran, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said his country had told the U.S. side that it would respond forcefully and rationally, adding that "the ball is now in America's court to prevent war." He did not specify what response he meant. The message puts negotiations alongside a mutual threat of escalation, as Iran offers to open the strait on conditions. The Strait of Hormuz is a direct focus of concerns about energy supplies: Reuters estimated that before the crisis it carried about 20% of global oil supplies. The issues of shipping and the blockade therefore remain part of the negotiating framework reported by the agency.
Oil prices swung during trading on November 3 as the market weighed efforts to end the war against the risk of supply disruptions. Brent futures rose 1.6% to more than $100 a barrel, after falling 7% in the previous session, according to Reuters via Investing.com. Later the same day, oil prices fell about 2% to a three-week low, according to the same source. The front-month gasoline futures contract settled at $2.9001 a gallon on November 2, compared with $3.1565 on October 30, according to EL7 data; these are futures settlements, not retail pump prices. This divergence alone does not determine the effect of possible escalation on the market, but it illustrates trading volatility in a session that coincided with ongoing negotiations.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has scheduled its next weekly petroleum status report for November 12, 2026, at 12:00 p.m., after adjusting the schedule because of the Veterans Day holiday. The release will come after the U.S. election on November 3, after which Trump has said he is considering military action. The possibility of renewed strikes remains tied to a decision the U.S. president has not made, and the timing of military action remains unclear, the Associated Press said. Meanwhile, Qatar continues its efforts to prevent escalation, while Tehran is setting conditions for reopening the strait and resuming nuclear talks. These developments will shape the course of the crisis in the coming days.