November 3 Sets a Crucial Date for Negotiations and Military Threats Between Washington and Tehran

Key Facts

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call on Saturday to discuss U.S. negotiations with Iran and the possibility of a return to fighting, according to an Axios report. The report cited two sources as saying Netanyahu is pressing for a strike on Iran immediately after Tuesday’s election, while Trump wants to give negotiations room. Axios said Trump is simultaneously seeking a deal to resume peace talks and preparing for the possibility of restarting major combat operations after the midterm elections. Trump told reporters on Saturday that negotiations were "going well" and that he was not "in much of a hurry." He added that the United States still needed to deal with one or two nuclear sites in Iran, without giving details of his call with Netanyahu.

Qatari mediation is under way as no agreement has taken shape between Washington and Tehran. Qatari mediators met Iranian officials on Sunday for the third consecutive day in an effort to reach an agreement that would restore direct negotiations between the two countries, according to Axios. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was no agreement yet and that reaching one depended on U.S. answers to Iran’s questions. He added that Tehran hoped Washington would choose diplomacy. Iranian negotiators are in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States responds to several Iranian conditions, the Associated Press reported; Araghchi confirmed that direct talks between the two countries are not currently taking place.

The proposal puts the Strait of Hormuz at the heart of diplomatic efforts, given the volume of energy flows passing through it. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that average oil flows through the strait were about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The administration’s estimates showed that 84% of the crude oil and condensate passing through the strait and 83% of the liquefied natural gas shipped through it went to Asian markets that year. This means any disruption to the waterway could affect flows directed mostly to Asia, as Tehran ties its reopening to a U.S. response to its conditions. Araghchi did not announce an agreement or the reopening of the strait, but spoke of a proposal under discussion.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have warned regional allies of the possibility of renewed attacks on Iran, saying a new military round could last several days, according to the Associated Press. Washington urged its allies to take precautions in case of an Iranian response that could target energy facilities and critical infrastructure. The United States has not carried out a strike on Iran since early September, the agency reported, while it was unclear how quickly the military would be ready to resume strikes after Election Day. Anwar Gargash, an adviser to the UAE president, called for political tools to form the basis of the response to the crisis, saying military solutions "will complicate an already complex picture" and will not provide quick exits. He added that the UAE and the region are preparing for the possibility of escalation, signaling a combination of calls for de-escalation and preparations for a widening confrontation.

Oil prices fell in early Monday trading as diplomatic efforts continued. Brent crude dropped 3.3% to $109.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 3.3% to $100.64, according to the Associated Press. EL7 data showed Brent closing at $113.43 a barrel and U.S. crude at $104.12 on October 30. Those figures are Friday’s closing prices, while Monday’s prices reflect early trading on the day after the Trump-Netanyahu call and the mediators’ meetings. Monday’s move saw crude fall alongside mediation efforts, while U.S. warnings of a possible military round remained part of the picture.

Attention is also turning to OPEC’s follow-up dates at the end of November. The organization said the next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, its 69th meeting, is scheduled for November 29, 2026, and that the committee will continue to monitor market conditions. An earlier statement from the organization set the same date for the 42nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. The two meetings are distinct from Group of Seven meetings, which are not covered by the OPEC dates cited in the two statements. These dates follow oil’s decline in Monday trading, while the course of negotiations and warnings of escalation remain key determinants of how the crisis develops in the coming days.