Qatari Talks Last More Than 12 Hours in Bid to Revive US-Iran Negotiations Before November Election
Key Facts
Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran that lasted more than 12 hours on Friday, seeking an agreement to restore direct negotiations between the United States and Iran, Axios reported, citing diplomatic sources. The talks are due to continue in Doha on Saturday, as Washington considers the possibility of resuming military action. The Associated Press reported that President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on launching new strikes, but has repeated that he is considering action after the November 3 election. That leaves mediation efforts facing a near-term political deadline, while the option of escalation remains on the table. Axios quoted US officials expressing differing views on how the election could affect the decision, leaving the course of US policy uncertain.
The main obstacle to resuming negotiations is a set of reciprocal conditions that mediators have so far failed to bring closer together. A US official told Axios that Washington wants nuclear concessions from Tehran before returning to talks. Iran, according to the same source, is making its return conditional on the United States first lifting the naval blockade, releasing frozen funds and allowing it to sell oil. Qatar is also seeking to persuade Iran to allow UN inspectors to visit nuclear sites that were bombed, in exchange for US sanctions relief. The mediation is thus proposing confidence-building measures alongside the broader dispute over the conditions that must be met before negotiations resume.
The mediation has regional support, with Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia urging Iran to resume negotiations before the midterm elections, according to Axios. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey have asked Trump in recent days to give diplomacy more time. The UAE foreign ministry has also called on the parties to exercise restraint and pursue political solutions to contain tensions and prevent a return to full-scale military operations. Iran’s foreign minister said on October 26 that the window for diplomacy had not closed and that messages were being conveyed to Washington through mediators. But he accused the United States of insisting on unilateral demands, underscoring that the dispute continues even as lines of communication remain open.
In Washington, an official told Axios that Trump could be more inclined to order a major military operation if Republicans lose the election by a wide margin. But a White House official told the outlet that the election results would not affect the president’s decisions on Iran. The administration has not publicly decided whether to order new strikes, according to the Associated Press. Washington has told regional allies that a potential military campaign could last several days and urged them to take precautions in case energy facilities and critical infrastructure are targeted. The warnings reflect preparation for the possibility of escalation, without indicating that a decision to launch an attack has been made.
The diplomatic and military moves come against the backdrop of an earlier round of contacts between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Axios report on October 13 said they discussed the possibility of a joint US-Israeli operation targeting military and nuclear sites, and quoted an Israeli official as saying Netanyahu was concerned about Iranian steps to rebuild parts of its nuclear program. On October 26, Netanyahu said the Israeli military was ready to defend and strike, warning that Israel would respond forcefully if attacked. The Associated Press also reported that an interim agreement was signed in June, aiming for a 60-day ceasefire and a framework for a lasting peace deal. It collapsed within weeks, bringing fears of a new confrontation back to the forefront of regional contacts.
The potential risks are also tied to maritime security, energy supplies and commodities. The Associated Press quoted Lloyd’s List Intelligence as saying Gulf operators continued to sail oil tankers despite 28 attacks on ships being recorded during October, the highest number since the war began, according to the company. The agency said a return to full-scale fighting could put civilians in the region at risk and disrupt global shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilizer, with prices potentially rising again. It reported that Iran had threatened to target US bases and allies in the region, and identified undersea data cables in the Strait of Hormuz as possible targets. The Doha talks scheduled for Saturday remain the next announced step in efforts to resume negotiations, while Washington has yet to decide on strikes.
Economic pressure inside Iran is reflected in price data cited by the Associated Press in a report on living conditions during the war. Rice prices rose by more than 60%, and beef by more than 150%, from the start of the war through October 25. In the United States, the Pentagon’s latest estimates, reported to Congress, put the cost of the war to taxpayers at 47.1 billion dollars through October 31. That cost adds a financial dimension to calculations about continuing the confrontation, as regional parties seek to keep negotiations on track. The scheduled continuation of talks in Doha on Saturday remains the nearest diplomatic milestone in this effort.