Silver Near $50.30 as Qeshm Strikes Lift Rate-Hike Odds to 73%
Key Facts
Silver traded near $50.30 an ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday, November 3, after modest gains the previous day, and remained close to its 11-month low of $48.87, recorded on October 30, according to FXStreet. A U.S. official told Reuters that the United States had carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press said the strikes targeted Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. assets in the strait, describing them as appearing limited and not a full return to hostilities. The strike put oil-supply concerns back in focus, while silver faced pressure from interest-rate and inflation expectations. FXStreet estimated the odds of a U.S. rate hike in December at about 73%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The $50.30 reading reflects price action during Asian trading, while EL7 data showed a close at $48.858 on November 3, compared with a close of $50.491 on November 2. These readings place the price in different time contexts: the first is a level traded during the session, and the second is a daily close. Silver had recorded an intraday low of $48.87 on October 30, according to FXStreet. In a metals report published on November 2, Reuters said spot silver rose 3.7% to $50.91 an ounce after falling below $50 in the previous session for the first time since late November 2025. The sequence of levels shows that gains on November 2 did not end pressure on the metal, which remained close to its recent low during Tuesday's session.
In energy markets, Brent crude rose 0.5% to $105.30 a barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors tracked the state of peace talks between Washington and Tehran, according to Reuters. In another oil-market reading at 0104 GMT, Brent stood at $105.25, up 0.5%, after ending Monday's session down 7.63% at $104.77 a barrel. Tim Waterer, an analyst at KCM Trade, said the strike report “put some risk premium back into oil prices.” Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply because of the conflict; the passage previously carried about one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies, according to Reuters. The strait's role in energy flows gives any military or negotiating development a direct impact on assessments of supply risk, while energy-related inflation concerns feed into monetary-policy expectations that weigh on silver.
Pressure also spread to Asian equity markets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan falling 1.4% to its lowest level since October 23, according to Reuters. The decline came amid pressure on technology stocks, with concerns about artificial-intelligence spending and earnings. FXStreet also linked pressure on silver to inflation concerns and the unwinding of positions in technology and AI stocks. Several market forces therefore converged in Tuesday's session: energy concerns after the strikes, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and a decline in technology shares. These factors provided a backdrop for the metal's trading near its low, alongside rising oil prices in Asian dealings.
On the diplomatic front, Iran said it had a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the United States if Washington met its demands, according to the Associated Press. Two regional officials told the agency that mediators were seeking a framework under which Iran would halt its attacks in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, with further talks scheduled during the week. Reuters reported that contacts between Tehran and Washington to end the war were continuing after Iranian-Qatari talks concluded with revised proposals but no breakthrough. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said the president and administration were comfortable with the prospects for a “negotiated settlement.” Against the backdrop of the tensions, October saw the highest number of attacks on commercial ships in the strait since March, as Iran sought to increase economic pressure on the United States to lift the blockade, according to the Associated Press.
Attention in the coming days will turn to the further talks that two regional officials said were scheduled this week and to whether efforts to halt the attacks and lift the blockade make progress. Separately, China announced plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November, aiming to reduce tensions and promote regional stability. Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has fallen sharply since the conflict began, will be among the indicators watched by energy markets. Markets will also monitor whether the limited strikes, as described by the Associated Press, affect the course of contacts between the two sides. For silver, the Asian-trading reading remained near $50.30 on a day when the metal stayed close to an 11-month low, with expectations of a December rate hike still at about 73%, according to FXStreet.