Trump Justifies Iran Campaign as a “Very Small” Cost, Says Inflation Reached 1.7%
Key Facts
US President Donald Trump defended the ongoing military campaign against Iran at a campaign rally, with his remarks carried in a report published on November 2, saying that preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon justified the cost. He called the cost a “very small price” for the security of the United States and the world, presenting the war as a security necessity on the eve of the midterm elections scheduled for the following day. Trump spoke of a previous military “journey,” but the report did not say that a new strike had taken place on the day it was published. It also attributed to US strikes a severe weakening of Iran’s naval, air and defensive capabilities, a characterization he made at the rally. His defense of the war came as voters’ concerns about the cost of living and energy prices intersected with voting on the composition of Congress.
Trump linked his position on the war to the economy, saying inflation over the previous three months was 1.7% and had “fallen a lot.” He added that oil prices were lower than under Joe Biden and Barack Obama, and predicted they would fall further when the war ended. However, official inflation figures available for September showed the annual Consumer Price Index accelerating to 3.7%, from 3.4% in the 12 months through August. On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.6% in September after increasing 0.4% in August. The gasoline index rose 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in the overall index.
In oil markets, Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to $111.84 a barrel on Monday, November 2, according to the report. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $102.56 a barrel on the same day. The report attributed the declines to hopes for diplomatic progress, as Trump predicted prices would fall further after the war ended. Talks between Iranian and Qatari officials remained among the factors traders were watching for signs of a settlement to the conflict. The report also noted that the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained a sensitive factor for the oil market.
The cost of the war to US taxpayers had reached $47.1 billion, according to the latest estimate the Pentagon provided to Congress through late October, the Associated Press reported. The agency said the war had weighed on Republicans’ election campaign, as voters voiced discontent over rising gasoline prices. The cost adds a domestic dimension to Trump’s defense of the campaign as a necessary price for security. September’s gasoline increase, which accounted for more than half of the monthly rise in the price index, also puts energy directly into the economic debate. Congressional elections are held every two years, with all House seats and one-third of Senate seats contested, determining which party holds a majority in each chamber for the following two years.
Alongside Trump’s remarks, efforts to end the war continued. On November 1, Iranian negotiators met in Doha for a third consecutive day with Qatari mediators, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks were continuing on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of a possible agreement, but no final outcome had been reached. The Associated Press quoted Araghchi as saying Tehran hoped Washington would choose “diplomacy instead of other paths,” and that Iran was prepared for both defense and diplomacy. Trump, for his part, said he had a good conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the war in Iran. Diplomatic developments and the security of the strait remain among the factors that could affect the course of the conflict and the oil market’s sensitivity.
As for the next economic data release, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics had scheduled publication of the October Consumer Price Index for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The release will follow September data showing the overall index up 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month. The midterm elections scheduled for November 3 take place the day after Trump’s remarks cited in the report. All House seats and one-third of Senate seats are up for election, with the results determining the majorities in both chambers for the following two years. Attention in the coming days will therefore turn to the next official data and the election results, alongside the outcome of contacts over the war and the strait.