UBS Upgrades Rivian to Buy, Sets $17 Price Target

Key Facts

UBS upgraded its rating on Rivian to "Buy" from "Neutral" and set a $17 price target, according to coverage of analyst Joseph Spak’s recommendation published on November 2, 2026. The decision followed a 19% drop in the stock over the previous month, compared with a 1% decline in the S&P 500 over the same period, according to Investing.com coverage. The bank viewed the decline as a buying opportunity ahead of expected improvements in R2 production and the automotive segment’s gross margin. The stock rose 3.2% in premarket trading to $12.55 after the upgrade, according to Investing.com coverage attributed to Reuters. EL7 data showed it closed at $12.16 on October 30, the latest closing price in the available data.

UBS’s positive view was based on initial demand for the R2 and management’s expectation that Rivian would end 2026 with a positive automotive gross margin, helped by the new model. The report said this trajectory could allow the company to post a positive margin reading in the first quarter of 2027. This remains a forward-looking expectation, while third-quarter results showed an automotive gross loss of $80 million. The loss was $130 million in the third quarter of 2025, an improvement of $50 million. The company attributed the improvement to higher deliveries, increased margin per unit, regulatory credits and tariff refunds, while costs associated with ramping up R2 production continued to weigh on results.

Consolidated revenue was $2.155 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 38% year over year, according to Rivian’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said 46% growth in deliveries contributed to the increase, along with $81 million in regulatory credit revenue and performance in software and services. Automotive revenue rose to $1.550 billion, up 36% from the same period a year earlier. Software and services revenue reached $605 million, a 45% increase. Of that amount, $354 million, or 59%, was attributed to the joint venture with Volkswagen Group.

Rivian recorded consolidated gross profit of $176 million in the third quarter, while the automotive segment remained at a gross loss, although the loss narrowed year over year. Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $913 million, compared with $1.173 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $435 million from $602 million in the third quarter of 2025. These figures show improved loss metrics compared with the year-earlier period, alongside revenue and delivery growth. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $1.658 billion, up 27% year over year, and gross profit was $179 million, according to the company’s filing for that quarter.

Alongside the results, Rivian raised the low end of its annual delivery forecast from 65,000 to 67,000 vehicles, while keeping the high end at 70,000 vehicles. The company said the midpoint of its adjusted EBITDA forecast improved by $100 million. It also lowered the midpoint of its capital expenditure forecast by $300 million. The higher guidance comes as the company said conversions of reservations for the high-performance R2 launch edition remained above its expectations during the third quarter. It added that it recorded a record number of test drives, according to its results presentation filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rivian ended the third quarter with total liquidity of $6.095 billion, including its revolving credit facility. The company added that a $1 billion, 10-year non-recourse loan from Volkswagen Group, received in October, brings pro forma available liquidity to $7.095 billion. This liquidity provides context for assessing the company’s ability to continue spending related to the R2 production ramp, while results showed ongoing net income and adjusted EBITDA losses. The company announced an autonomy and artificial intelligence event for December 9, 2026. Rivian said it would share more details during the event.