Rivian Raises 2026 Delivery Floor to 67,000 Vehicles After Beating Estimates
Key Facts
Rivian raised the floor of its 2026 vehicle delivery forecast to 67,000 from 65,000, while keeping the upper end at 70,000, based on its fourth-quarter production and delivery outlook, according to its earnings release dated October 29. The revision came after third-quarter revenue beat analysts’ estimates, reaching $2.16 billion against consensus of $1.99 billion. The company also posted an adjusted loss of $0.48 per share, narrower than the $0.64 loss analysts had expected. Rivian said its annual delivery range was “improving from 65,000–70,000 to 67,000–70,000 units.” The higher floor depends on deliveries accelerating toward year-end, as management expects the R2 to account for most fourth-quarter delivery volume.
The company had reaffirmed an annual range of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles on October 2, after reporting third-quarter production of 19,751 vehicles and deliveries of 19,248, both figures it said were in line with its expectations at the time. The R2 became Rivian’s top-selling model by volume during the quarter, ahead of the R1 and commercial vans. That position gives the model a growing role in the final-quarter delivery plan, as the company links the higher annual floor to expected production and deliveries during that period. At the same time, the reliance on higher R2 volume puts execution of the fourth-quarter plan at the center of the new outlook. Trading showed an initially positive response to the earnings announcement, with shares rising 2.5% in after-hours trading on October 29.
Consolidated gross profit totaled $176 million in the third quarter, an improvement of $152 million from the same period a year earlier. The automotive segment’s gross loss narrowed to $80 million from $130 million a year earlier. The company attributed the improvement in automotive profitability to higher deliveries and increased margin per vehicle, along with regulatory credit revenue and a tariff refund receivable, partly offset by spending tied to ramping up R2 production. Automotive revenue rose 36% to $1.550 billion, supported by higher deliveries and regulatory credits. But average selling price declined as the R2 and commercial vans made up a larger share of the vehicles sold.
Software and services provided another source of revenue growth, with revenue from the business rising 45% to $605 million in the third quarter, including $354 million from the joint venture with Volkswagen, according to figures cited in a report on the results. The joint venture’s contribution stands alongside automotive revenue, but does not remove the dependence of higher deliveries on increased vehicle production. On profitability, management said higher commodity and memory costs add complexity and pressure, and discussed cost-reduction efforts in response. The company also pointed to the costs of ramping up R2 production as a factor partly limiting the benefit of improved delivery volumes and margin per vehicle. These costs remain among the factors balancing sales growth against improved gross profit.
Free cash flow remained negative at $1.124 billion in the third quarter, compared with negative $421 million in the same period of 2025. The company said working capital use was affected by lower deferred revenue and inventory build to support the R2 launch. The wider cash outflow reflects the company’s need to fund inventory and prepare for higher production, alongside continued losses. Rivian ended the quarter with about $5.5 billion in cash and short-term investments. Management had announced financing from Volkswagen for a 10-year term loan on October 7, at a fixed interest rate of 6%; this financing was not included in September-end liquidity, but raises pro forma available liquidity, together with the credit facility, to $7.1 billion.
Rivian improved its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization loss forecast by $100 million at the midpoint, attributing the change to better-than-expected regulatory credit revenue, a tariff refund receivable and expected higher deliveries. It also lowered its capital expenditure forecast by $300 million at the midpoint, explaining that the reduction was related to the timing of spending. Management said it aims to end the fourth quarter with positive automotive gross profit, without expecting positive gross profit for the quarter as a whole. The company is scheduled to provide more details at its Autonomy and AI Day event on December 9. In premarket trading on October 30, shares rose 7.2% to $12.27.