Seven OPEC+ Producers Agree in Principle to Keep December Targets Steady Amid Export Disruptions

Key Facts

Seven OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep oil production targets for December unchanged, Reuters reported on October 31, citing people familiar with the matter. The proposed approach comes as the group faces disruptions to Gulf exports, after they were affected for months by the U.S.-Iran war. Reuters said most participating countries are still pumping below their targets. The discussion is therefore focused on keeping targets unchanged for another month, while actual output from most members remains below their assigned quotas.

The situation reflects a gap between targets and actual output, as well as export disruptions affecting the Gulf. Reuters said most participating countries were pumping “well below their targets,” a description that reflects continued constraints on actual supply despite established production quotas. In August, the seven countries produced 25 million barrels per day, up 630 thousand barrels per day from July, according to OPEC data cited by Reuters. Despite the increase, their output remained about 5 million barrels per day below its level before the war in February. The comparison shows that the monthly rise in production did not erase the large gap with pre-conflict levels.

OPEC+ kept production targets for November unchanged on October 4, according to a Reuters report, which also said further changes to production policy were unlikely before the following year. At that meeting, the Associated Press said the seven countries kept November output steady and set November 1 as the date to review oil market conditions. The preliminary move to keep December targets steady extends this recent course, with Gulf export disruptions continuing. But keeping targets unchanged does not mean every country is producing at its quota; Reuters said most participants remained below target levels. OPEC announced on October 4 that the seven countries’ next meeting would be held on November 1.

Against the backdrop of production policy, the group completed the gradual unwinding in September of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut, first adopted in 2023. But another layer of cuts, amounting to about 2 million barrels per day and covering most members, remained in place through the end of 2026. Reuters said further policy changes were not expected before the following year, while the remaining cuts continue to form part of the current production framework. This means the unwinding of the first cut did not end voluntary supply restrictions. The remaining volume of cuts is set under the agreement through year-end, before the next quota baselines are considered.

Market indicators reflect some of the supply tightness. An analyst at UBS said the seven countries’ output remained below their quotas despite increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and that the oil market remained tight. In a report published by Reuters in October, Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel, compared with about $73 before the war on Iran began in late February. The International Energy Agency also said gas oil stocks in OECD countries stood at 565 million barrels in July, down 5% from pre-conflict levels and the lowest since November 2023. These figures place output below quotas, prices and inventories in the market context the group is reviewing, without determining the meeting’s decision on their own.

After the November meeting, attention will turn to a review of participating countries’ production capacity during the fourth quarter of 2026, which must be completed before 2027 quota baselines are set. Reuters said those baselines will determine future quotas and plans to phase out the remaining cuts. December’s deliberations are therefore linked to a broader process for setting producers’ quotas for the following year, while current cuts remain in place through the end of 2026. OPEC said the 42nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting under the Declaration of Cooperation is scheduled for November 29, 2026. That date follows the seven countries’ November 1 meeting and its announced market review.