OPEC+ Holds November Targets for Seven Countries, Sets Meeting for November 1
Key Facts
The seven countries participating in the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation kept required production levels for November at the levels required for September 2026, according to an OPEC statement issued after the group held a virtual meeting on October 4. The decision applies to these seven countries and does not extend to all OPEC members. The group includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. OPEC said it reviewed global market conditions and prospects. The targets were held steady as Gulf producers’ export flows remained affected by the war, while output from the seven countries remained below their quotas. OPEC set November 1 for the group’s next meeting to review market conditions.
OPEC data cited by Reuters show the gap between targets and actual output: the seven countries produced 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July, but still about 5 million barrels per day below February levels, before the war. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the seven countries’ output remained "well below quotas" despite higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and described the oil market as still tight. Reuters reported that Gulf producers’ exports in recent months ranged from 60% to 80% of their usual levels. This means nominal targets alone do not describe how much oil actually reached the market. OPEC said in June that aggregate production levels would remain in place through December 31, 2026, with an assessment of sustainable production capacity serving as a reference for 2027 production baselines.
Oil tankers continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping is taking place under U.S. military protection amid an increase in attacks on vessels, according to the Associated Press. The agency cited Lloyd’s List Intelligence as recording 28 attacks on ships during October, the highest number since the start of the war. It also reported that October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March. In a statement issued on October 12, ministers from the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation said shipping and insurance costs had reached unprecedented levels, exceeding one third of the value of the goods. OPEC said these burdens pass through the oil value chain, increasing and prolonging costs for producing and consuming countries, with an impact on global economic growth.
In Saudi Arabia, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said the East-West pipeline’s capacity had risen to 7 million barrels per day, from 2 million barrels per day previously, according to the Associated Press. The pipeline provides a route for transporting oil that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, while tanker traffic through the strait continues despite the risks. In the market, Brent crude closed at $115.81 per barrel on October 26, compared with $116.72 on October 23, according to EL7 data. West Texas Intermediate closed at $101.76 per barrel, versus $103.27 on October 23. Earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the average spot price of Brent was $114 per barrel in September, up $23 from August, and linked the increase to attacks on oil facilities and tankers in the Middle East.
The Energy Information Administration expects most of the region’s output to return to pre-conflict averages by the end of the second quarter of 2027, with the average spot price of Brent falling to $74 per barrel in the fourth quarter of that year. The agency set November 10, 2026, as the release date for its next Short-Term Energy Outlook. As for the next OPEC+ meeting, Reuters reported on October 27, citing three sources, that participating countries were likely to keep December production targets unchanged at Sunday’s meeting, as attention shifts to negotiations over 2027 quotas; the sources said no decision had been finalized. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled to hold its sixty-ninth meeting on November 29, 2026, and OPEC also set its next ministerial meeting for the same date. OPEC has said the sustainable production capacity review will be used as a reference for 2027 baselines.