EL7.AI
GeopoliticsMedium•1 November 2026•
4 min read

Khamenei expands target bank, ties any U.S. or Israeli threat to immediate response

Key Facts

1Araghchi said a proposal with mediators could allow the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen within two days.
2Brent rose 2.4% in the October 30 session to $117.64 a barrel, and ended October up 13.6%.
3The average spot price for Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August.
4The OPEC+ group was scheduled to meet on November 1 to review oil market conditions.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said any U.S. or Israeli threat, whatever its type or level, should be met with an immediate and effective response without geographic limits, the Associated Press reported on October 31, 2026. Khamenei directed that the target list be updated to include U.S. and Israeli tangible and intangible assets, according to Axios. This marks an announced expansion of the scope of targets that he said the armed forces should be able to reach. The message came during a meeting with senior Iranian armed forces commanders. Khamenei linked any potential threat to the speed of the response and the breadth of its geographic scope.

The meeting included Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, Army commander Amir Hatami and Revolutionary Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi, according to Axios. The commanders briefed Khamenei on military readiness along the Gulf coast and around the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. They also outlined readiness on Iran’s northwestern and southeastern borders. The commanders said production of some types of ammunition, reconnaissance weapons, support weapons and combat weapons had increased several times over. The briefing was part of their presentation of capabilities and readiness to the supreme leader.

On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new proposal reached with mediators could shorten the time needed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to two days. The Associated Press added that Iranian diplomats were in Qatar for talks. Araghchi said Tehran was not planning to meet U.S. officials. He said a decision on whether to hold direct or indirect negotiations would come after Washington approved Iran’s conditions. That places the proposal to reopen the strait within a mediation and negotiation process whose format has yet to be settled.

Iran had proposed the previous month to reopen the strait within a week in exchange for the lifting of the U.S. blockade of its ports, the release of its frozen assets and sanctions exemptions for oil sales, according to the Associated Press; that proposal was rejected. In a subsequent diplomatic effort, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials aimed at reaching an end to the war with the United States and Israel. The head of Iran’s National Security Council said the U.S. tone had “changed completely,” describing that as a “good sign.” But he did not respond to a message sent by U.S. Vice President JD Vance. The official said ships crossing the strait after it reopened would use a route agreed between Iran and Oman, and that passage would be “under Iranian management.”

These developments coincide with disruption to energy flows through the region. The Associated Press said fighting with Iran, which began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on February 28, disrupted global oil supplies and pushed prices higher. In a separate incident, Oman said it evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker after it came under attack and caught fire off Musandam Governorate on October 30. The agency reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said 4 oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, including a tanker carrying more than 2 million barrels. The agency was unable to verify some Iranian claims, and it was unclear whether the tanker incident in which Oman evacuated the crew was linked to the tanker fires described by Tehran.

Oil markets posted gains at the end of October. Brent settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday, October 30, up 2.4% during the session after touching $118, Reuters reported via Investing.com. The crude benchmark ended the month up 13.6%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had reported that the average spot price for Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, as prices rose following attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. These figures do not specifically link the price moves to Khamenei’s directive.

On supply, 7 major oil-exporting countries decided to keep production steady in November, according to the Associated Press. The OPEC+ group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, was scheduled to meet on November 1 to review oil market conditions, the agency said. At the same time, the Associated Press said U.S. officials had told Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for the possibility of renewed military action against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections, as well as the possibility of an Iranian response. The agency quoted diplomats as saying that U.S. President Donald Trump had not made a final decision on launching new strikes on Iran. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next energy outlook on November 10, 2026.