Khamenei Orders Immediate Response, Expands Target Bank as Qatar Talks Exceed 12 Hours
Key Facts
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the armed forces to respond "immediately and effectively, without geographical limits" to any renewed U.S. or Israeli attack, according to a statement from his office reported by Axios on Saturday. The statement said the armed forces and the Iranian people would determine "when and under what conditions hostilities end" if military or terrorist attacks resumed. Khamenei also directed that the target bank be updated to include the physical and non-physical assets of the U.S.-Zionist enemy within the forces' reach. The directive comes as Qatar seeks to bring the United States and Iran back to direct talks and prevent a resumption of the war after the midterm elections. The statement does not announce a new attack, but sets out the scope of Iran's declared response if attacks resume.
The directive came during the first publicly announced meeting bringing Khamenei together with all senior armed forces commanders since the war began, Axios reported. Participants included Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, Army Commander Amir Hatami and Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmad Vahidi. The commanders briefed the supreme leader on readiness along the Gulf coast and around the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, as well as on the country's northwestern and southeastern borders. They reported a several-fold increase in production of certain types of ammunition, reconnaissance weapons, support weapons and combat weapons. Their briefing put production and field readiness at the center of the meeting that produced the directive to expand the target bank.
On the diplomatic track, Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday, seeking an agreement to restore direct talks between Washington and Tehran and avert a new outbreak of war after the midterm elections, Axios reported. "There is positive progress, and the talks are continuing," a diplomatic source told the outlet. Qatar is seeking reciprocal steps to be implemented within a few days to bring the two sides back to negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and other issues. The confidence-building effort includes persuading Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit its nuclear sites that were bombed, in exchange for some U.S. sanctions relief. The Associated Press said Qatar's delegation was led by the foreign minister and a senior adviser to the prime minister, and returned to Tehran on Friday; Axios did not specify the date of the talks that lasted more than 12 hours.
But the negotiations face disagreement over what should happen before they resume. President Donald Trump's administration is demanding Iranian nuclear concessions before returning to talks, while Tehran is seeking the lifting of the naval blockade, the release of frozen funds and permission to sell oil first, Axios reported. The mediators' visit was preceded by a message from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Tehran acknowledged receiving the message on Thursday, but said it had not responded and did not disclose its contents, according to the Associated Press. In this context, the mediation is proposing time-bound reciprocal steps, while the two sides' conditions remain an obstacle to resuming direct negotiations.
In parallel, regional countries are preparing for the possibility of renewed military action, although its timing remains uncertain. The Associated Press said the United States had not carried out a strike on Iran since early September, and that it was unclear when the military would be ready to resume strikes after election day. Washington has told its allies that a new military round, if it occurs, could last several days, and urged them to take precautions in case of an Iranian response targeting energy facilities and critical infrastructure. Regional officials fear that a response by Iran or allied groups could prolong the fighting. The agency framed the possibility of resumed strikes as something that could follow the midterm elections, not as a confirmed military date.
An incident involving a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns over shipping security. Oman said it had evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker after it came under attack and caught fire 1.6 nautical miles off the coast of Musandam Governorate, according to the Associated Press. In a separate incident, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said 4 oil tankers were hit by mines and caught fire in the strait on Friday. But the agency said it could not verify the Iranian claim, and it was unclear whether the tanker incident in which Oman said it evacuated the crew was connected to the fires reported by the Revolutionary Guard. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said rising risks to tanker passage in the region had increased shipping costs and the risk premium in oil prices.
Energy Information Administration data show the scale of the decline in flows of crude oil and petroleum liquids through the Strait of Hormuz, which it estimated at about 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, with data for that quarter extending through June or the latest period available. On prices, the spot average for Brent crude was $114 per barrel in September, up $23 from August, the agency said. The daily spot price reached $131 per barrel on 15 September, after disruption to the Saudi pipeline that bypasses the strait. The agency attributed September's price increase to a rise in attacks on oil facilities and tankers in the Middle East. It forecast a spot Brent average of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, with oil flows from the Middle East remaining constrained, and set 10 November as the date for its next short-term outlook report.