Iran Offers to Reopen Hormuz Within Two Days Amid Talks With Qatari Mediators
Key Facts
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on October 31 that a new proposal reached with mediators could reduce the time needed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to two days, as Iranian diplomats in Qatar discussed it. The proposal sets a short deadline for opening the passage, but remains tied to negotiations whose format the two sides have yet to agree on. Araghchi said a decision on whether to hold talks directly or indirectly would be made “once Washington accepts Iran’s terms.” He added that Tehran did not plan to meet U.S. officials, but described Washington’s efforts to pursue broader dialogue as a positive step. Those terms leave the path to implementation and the format of negotiations dependent on the U.S. position.
The new proposal follows an earlier Iranian offer last month calling for the strait to be reopened within a week in exchange for the United States agreeing to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, release frozen Iranian assets and exempt oil sales from sanctions, among other terms. The Associated Press reported that Washington rejected that offer. The current proposal cuts the stated time to reopen the strait to two days, but sources do not present it as an agreement in force or as U.S. acceptance of Iran’s demands. Political and economic terms therefore remain part of the process ahead of deciding the format of talks, while Araghchi has not announced an implementation date. The published details of the proposal also did not establish separate arrangements for toll-free shipping.
Arrangements for passage itself remain a potential point of disagreement. Iran’s National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei said vessels in the strait after its reopening would use a route agreed by Iran and Oman, adding that “everyone who passes through this waterway will do so under Iranian administration.” That formula places management of vessel traffic among the issues under discussion, alongside Tehran’s political terms. The statement did not establish that Washington or Oman had agreed to the arrangement. Rezaei said he had not replied to a message from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, without providing details. It therefore remained unclear how the message might relate to the timetable for talks or the proposal under discussion.
Qatari mediation intensified over two days of talks. Iranian envoys held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday, following more than 12 hours of discussions between Iranian and Qatari envoys in Tehran on Friday, according to a source cited by Reuters. The source said the contacts were coordinated with Washington. In Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump had not decided whether to launch new strikes on Iran and preferred a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Rubio gave no timetable for the talks in Qatar. The statements point to continued diplomatic contacts alongside the persistence of a risk of military escalation.
In the oil market, the Brent contract for December delivery, which expired on Friday, October 30, settled at $117.64 a barrel after rising 2.4%. The more actively traded January contract rose to $113.43, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.08% to $104.12. For the month, Brent ended October up 13.6%, while West Texas Intermediate rose 15.2%. Reuters linked the gains to concerns about an escalation of the war after the U.S. midterm elections and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The British maritime security service said the tanker was struck by explosive devices attached by a small boat; it was not immediately clear who was behind the attack.
Estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed the scale of the shift in market expectations: the average spot price of Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, which the agency attributed to attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. The agency expects the average price to reach $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its forecast in the previous month’s report, assuming that restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East persist during the quarter. It also expects most of the region’s production to return to pre-conflict averages by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and the average spot price of Brent to fall to $87 a barrel by that quarter. The agency warned that continued volatility in oil flows through Hormuz and alternative routes could make short-term price movements more volatile than its forecasts indicate. The agency set November 10, 2026, as the release date for its next Short-Term Energy Outlook.