82% of Reporting S&P 500 Companies Beat Earnings Estimates Through October 30
Key Facts
FactSet said in its October 30 update that 60% of S&P 500 companies had reported third-quarter results, and earnings per share at 82% of reporting companies came in above analysts’ estimates. That share exceeds the five-year average of 78% and the ten-year average of 77%. But the broad number of companies beating expectations was not matched by a large aggregate earnings surprise. Reported earnings were 1.9% above estimates overall. If that gap holds at its current level, it would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2022, when it was 1.3%.
The figures highlight a contrast between the prevalence of better-than-expected results and the size of the actual surprise. The five-year average earnings beat is 7.5%, rising to 8.0% over ten years, compared with 1.9% currently. The share of companies beating estimates stood at 83% in the October 23 update, when 24% of index companies had reported, and reported earnings were then 2.1% above estimates overall. By October 30, the reporting sample had widened to 60% of the index, while the overall gap had narrowed to 1.9%. This does not show that most companies delivered large surprises: the share measures how many companies beat estimates, while the gap measures by how much earnings exceeded them.
At the growth level, the blended earnings growth rate for the third quarter rose to 30.2% in the October 30 update, from 29.5% the previous week and 29.1% at quarter-end on September 30. The rate combines actual results from companies that have reported with estimates for those that have not, so it remains subject to change as the reporting season progresses. All eleven sectors in the index posted year-over-year earnings growth, while seven recorded double-digit growth. Energy, information technology and materials led the seven sectors with double-digit growth. FactSet said positive earnings-per-share surprises across several sectors, led by health care, information technology and energy, supported index earnings growth during the week. That support was partly offset by a negative earnings-per-share surprise from a company in the communication services sector.
Growth estimates also improved for revenue, with the blended third-quarter revenue growth rate at 13.4%, compared with 12.7% the previous week and 12.2% at quarter-end. Among companies that had reported through October 30, actual revenue exceeded analysts’ estimates at 70% of them, matching the five-year average and topping the ten-year average of 68%. Revenue was 1.7% above estimates overall. The data add another measure to the earnings season, combining estimated revenue growth for all companies with results from those that have already reported. Earnings data meanwhile show that a higher blended growth rate does not mean the current size of the beat matches historical averages.
On margins, FactSet estimated the S&P 500’s blended net profit margin at about 14.9% for the third quarter, based on an estimate as of October 26. If achieved, that would be the second-highest margin FactSet has recorded since it began tracking the measure in 2009. The record remains 17.0%, set in the previous quarter, the second quarter of 2026. The margin estimate concerns the blended result for the quarter and therefore remains dependent on what companies that have yet to report disclose. The estimate comes alongside blended earnings and revenue growth, while the actual gap between earnings and estimates remains below historical averages so far.
Analysts’ estimates rose ahead of the reporting season, with third-quarter earnings-per-share estimates increasing 1.4% between June 30 and September 30. By contrast, estimates have fallen by an average of 2.2% in the quarter over the previous five years and 2.5% over the previous ten years. Also, 72 of the 116 companies that provided earnings-per-share guidance had issued positive guidance for the third quarter through October 2, or 62% of companies providing guidance. These figures provide context for the period before disclosures began, when estimates were rising instead of declining in line with historical averages. On October 23, earnings growth forecasts stood at 29.2% for the fourth quarter and 33.1% for full-year 2026. These were analysts’ forecasts issued on that date, while actual third-quarter results continue to be added to the picture.
Attention turns in the week after FactSet’s update to 140 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report third-quarter results, including 3 constituents of the Dow 30. Their disclosures will add information to a results sample that had not yet passed 60% of the index through October 30. Subsequent updates will change the blended growth rate and the earnings beat gap as new results enter the calculation. In the October 30 session, the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, its worst daily performance since June, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.9% and the Dow fell 1.1%. The Associated Press attributed pressure on technology stocks to concerns that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence had pushed prices too high, and reported that Intel shares fell about 29%. The agency said the monthly jobs report would be released on Friday of the following week, and that AMD, Super Micro Computer and Booking Holdings would report results on Tuesday.